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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Naval 1893 vs Felgueiras 1932

0 – 2 Full time

29′T. Leite
72′M. Rivas
Naval 1893 46%
Draw 31%
Felgueiras 1932 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Naval 1893 vs Felgueiras 1932 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Naval 1893 vs Felgueiras 1932

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNaval 1893DrawFelgueiras 1932
Model46.0%30.6%23.3%
Market———
Final46.0%30.6%23.3%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Naval 1893

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Naval 1893 ↓ / Felgueiras 193 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 8% 1 13% 14% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 66%
3+ goals 38%
No goals 12%

Naval 1893 and Felgueiras 1932 expected goals

Naval 1893 1.32
Felgueiras 1932 0.88

Total expected goals: 2.21

Naval 1893 and Felgueiras 1932 attack and defence ratings

Naval 1893

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Felgueiras 1932

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Naval 1893 vs Felgueiras 1932: result vs prediction

Naval 1893 0 – 2 Felgueiras 1932

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Naval 1893 vs Felgueiras 1932 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Naval 1893 46.0% 2.17 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 62.1% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score No 55.8% 1.79 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.4% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Naval 189346.0%
Draw30.6%
Felgueiras 193223.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537.9%
Under 2.562.1%
Both teams to scoreYes44.2%
No55.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.7%
12 (either side)69.4%
X2 (draw or away)54.0%
Handicap -1Naval 1893 win22.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss54.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
1-013.4%
0-012.3%

Naval 1893 vs Felgueiras 1932 stats

Naval 1893 and Felgueiras 1932 recent form

newest first
Naval 1893 WLW
Felgueiras 1932 LLWDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Naval 1893 vs Felgueiras 1932 head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Naval 1893 vs Felgueiras 1932 odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.