Castro Daire
vs
Portimonense
0 – 1 Full time
| 34′ | Portimonense | ||
| 50′ | Portimonense |
Castro Daire vs Portimonense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Castro Daire vs Portimonense
| Probability | Castro Daire | Draw | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 30.7% | 28.3% |
| Market | 11.9% | 20.7% | 67.4% |
| Final | 19.2% | 23.2% | 57.6% |
| Edge | +29.2% | +10.0% | -39.1% |
Why Portimonense
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Castro Daire and Portimonense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Castro Daire and Portimonense attack and defence ratings
Castro Daire
Portimonense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Castro Daire vs Portimonense: result vs prediction
Castro Daire 0 – 1 Portimonense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Castro Daire vs Portimonense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portimonense | 57.6% | 1.73 | -39.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castro Daire | 19.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Portimonense | 57.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portimonense win | 11.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 71.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.3% |
Castro Daire vs Portimonense stats
Castro Daire and Portimonense recent form
| Castro Daire |
L |
| Portimonense |
LLLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.
Castro Daire vs Portimonense head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Castro Daire vs Portimonense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 11.9%, draw 20.7%, away 67.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 8.65 | 4.30 | 1.32 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.38 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 4.40 | 1.36 |
| Betfair | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.30 |
| Marathonbet | 8.20 | 4.30 | 1.31 |
| Pinnacle | 7.44 | 4.25 | 1.32 |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.35 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .