Garuda Lions
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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Oliveirense vs Penafiel

1 – 2 Full time

32′L. Bastos
46′C. Mendes
69′M. Svensson
Oliveirense 27%
Draw 28%
Penafiel 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Oliveirense vs Penafiel overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Oliveirense vs Penafiel

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOliveirenseDrawPenafiel
Model26.0%25.8%48.2%
Market27.1%28.4%44.5%
Final26.8%27.7%45.4%
Edge-1.1%-2.6%+3.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Penafiel

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Penafiel below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Oliveirense ↓ / Penafiel → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 8% 1 12% 10% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

Oliveirense and Penafiel expected goals

Oliveirense 1.23
Penafiel 1.75

Total expected goals: 2.98

Oliveirense and Penafiel attack and defence ratings

Oliveirense

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Penafiel

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Oliveirense vs Penafiel: result vs prediction

Oliveirense 1 – 2 Penafiel

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Oliveirense vs Penafiel markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Penafiel 45.4% 2.20 +3.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.1% 1.75 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.5% 1.68 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 73.2% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.4% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Oliveirense26.8%
Draw27.7%
Penafiel45.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%
Both teams to scoreYes59.5%
No40.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.6%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)73.2%
Handicap -1Penafiel win27.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss51.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
1-29.5%
0-17.8%

Oliveirense vs Penafiel stats

Oliveirense and Penafiel recent form

newest first
Oliveirense WLWDLW
Penafiel WWWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Oliveirense vs Penafiel head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Oliveirense wins 5Draws 2Penafiel wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-25OliveirensePenafielSegunda Liga2-1
2025-08-17PenafielOliveirenseSegunda Liga0-0
2025-01-20OliveirensePenafielSegunda Liga2-2
2024-08-11PenafielOliveirenseSegunda Liga4-3
2024-02-03PenafielOliveirenseSegunda Liga1-1
2023-08-27OliveirensePenafielSegunda Liga3-1
2023-03-04PenafielOliveirenseSegunda Liga1-1
2022-09-09OliveirensePenafielSegunda Liga1-1
2021-03-03PenafielOliveirenseSegunda Liga1-0
2020-09-18OliveirensePenafielSegunda Liga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Oliveirense vs Penafiel odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.1%, draw 28.4%, away 44.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.44 3.14 2.01
Bet365 3.10 3.40 2.00
BetVictor 3.30 3.30 2.05
Betfair 3.25 3.30 2.00
Marathonbet 3.36 3.14 1.99
Pinnacle 3.40 3.15 2.08
William Hill 3.30 3.00 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.30 —
X 3.15 —
2 2.01 ▼ -0.01

2 snapshots recorded, from .