Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Oliveirense
vs
Penalva Castelo
4 – 0 Full time
Oliveirense
29%
Draw
27%
Penalva Castelo
44%
Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
| Probability | Oliveirense | Draw | Penalva Castelo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.6% | 27.3% | 44.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.6% | 27.3% | 44.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Penalva Castelo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.22.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Oliveirense and Penalva Castelo expected goals
Oliveirense
1.22
Penalva Castelo
1.56
Total expected goals: 2.78
Oliveirense and Penalva Castelo attack and defence ratings
Oliveirense
Attack
0.72 -28%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Penalva Castelo
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo: result vs prediction
Oliveirense 4 – 0 Penalva Castelo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
- Machico v Camacha — match page
Before and after this match
Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penalva Castelo | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oliveirense | 28.6% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Penalva Castelo | 44.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penalva Castelo win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 8.5% |
Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo stats
Oliveirense and Penalva Castelo recent form
| Oliveirense |
LWDLWL |
| Penalva Castelo |
no matches on record |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.