Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Machico
vs
Camacha
2 – 2 Full time
Machico
43%
Draw
25%
Camacha
32%
Machico vs Camacha overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Machico vs Camacha
| Probability | Machico | Draw | Camacha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 25.2% | 31.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.2% | 25.2% | 31.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Machico
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Machico and Camacha expected goals
Machico
1.76
Camacha
1.47
Total expected goals: 3.23
Machico and Camacha attack and defence ratings
Machico
Attack
0.89 -11%
Defence
0.99 -1%
Camacha
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Machico vs Camacha: result vs prediction
Machico 2 – 2 Camacha
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Machico vs Camacha markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machico | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machico | 43.2% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Camacha | 31.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% |
| No | 35.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machico win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 56.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |