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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·1/128-finals

Atlético Malveira vs Mafra

2 – 3 Full time

Estadio das Seixas, Malveira

Atlético Malveira 61%
Draw 22%
Mafra 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Atlético Malveira vs Mafra overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético Malveira vs Mafra

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlético MalveiraDrawMafra
Model60.7%22.1%17.2%
Market———
Final60.7%22.1%17.2%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Atlético Malveira

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlético Malve ↓ / Mafra → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 10% 2 9% 10% 5% 3 7% 7% 4+ 6% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Atlético Malveira and Mafra expected goals

Atlético Malveira 2.15
Mafra 1.06

Total expected goals: 3.21

Atlético Malveira and Mafra attack and defence ratings

Atlético Malveira

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Mafra

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlético Malveira vs Mafra: result vs prediction

Atlético Malveira 2 – 3 Mafra

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Atlético Malveira vs Mafra markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atlético Malveira 60.7% 1.65 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.8% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.6% 1.71 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.8% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Atlético Malveira win 39.0% 2.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlético Malveira60.7%
Draw22.1%
Mafra17.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.8%
Under 2.538.2%
Both teams to scoreYes58.6%
No41.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.8%
12 (either side)77.9%
X2 (draw or away)39.3%
Handicap -1Atlético Malveira win39.0%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss38.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.2%
2-19.9%
2-09.3%

Atlético Malveira vs Mafra stats

Atlético Malveira and Mafra recent form

newest first
Atlético Malveira LW
Mafra L

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Atlético Malveira vs Mafra head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Atlético Malveira vs Mafra odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.