Garuda Lions
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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Mafra vs Tirsense

2 – 2 Full time

3′C. Sousa
16′M. Niang
92′Mafra
105′Tirsense
120′Mafra
120′Tirsense
120′Mafra
120′Tirsense
120′Mafra
120′Tirsense
120′Mafra
Mafra 58%
Draw 24%
Tirsense 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Mafra vs Tirsense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mafra vs Tirsense

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMafraDrawTirsense
Model45.9%25.2%28.8%
Market61.4%23.5%15.1%
Final57.5%23.9%18.5%
Edge-15.5%+1.8%+13.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Mafra

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.37.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mafra ↓ / Tirsense → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Mafra and Tirsense expected goals

Mafra 1.79
Tirsense 1.37

Total expected goals: 3.15

Mafra and Tirsense attack and defence ratings

Mafra

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Tirsense

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mafra vs Tirsense: result vs prediction

Mafra 2 – 2 Tirsense

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Mafra vs Tirsense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mafra 57.5% 1.74 -15.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.9% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.1% 1.58 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.5% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.5% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mafra57.5%
Draw23.9%
Tirsense18.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%
Both teams to scoreYes63.1%
No36.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.5%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)42.5%
Handicap -1Mafra win25.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss53.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-19.3%
1-27.2%

Mafra vs Tirsense stats

Mafra and Tirsense recent form

newest first
Mafra WL
Tirsense L

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Mafra vs Tirsense head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Mafra vs Tirsense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.5%, draw 23.4%, away 15.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.47 3.82 6.08
Bet365 1.48 3.90 5.25
BetVictor 1.45 4.00 6.00
Betfair 1.44 4.00 5.50
Marathonbet 1.46 3.82 5.80
Pinnacle 1.46 3.84 5.93
William Hill 1.50 3.50 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.46 ▼ -0.05
X 3.83 ▲ +0.15
2 5.96 ▲ +0.51

3 snapshots recorded, from .