Mafra
vs
Santa Clara
3 – 2 Full time
| 7′ | José Tavares | ||
| 31′ | Pedro Ferreira | ||
| 35′ | Rodrigo Matos | ||
| 43′ | José Tavares | ||
| 45′ | José Tavares | ||
| 45′ | José Tavares | ||
| 61′ | Luis Fernando | ||
| 70′ | Tiago Ribeiro | ||
| 76′ | Celso Raposo | ||
| 89′ | Lénio Neves | ||
| 90′ | Rodrigo Matos | ||
| 90′ | Lucas Soares | ||
| 101′ | Mamor Niang | ||
| 105′ | Lénio Neves | ||
| 105′ | Lénio Neves |
Mafra vs Santa Clara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mafra vs Santa Clara
| Probability | Mafra | Draw | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.2% | 30.0% | 43.7% |
| Market | 17.9% | 23.2% | 58.9% |
| Final | 20.0% | 24.9% | 55.1% |
| Edge | +2.1% | +1.7% | -3.8% |
Why Santa Clara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mafra and Santa Clara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Mafra and Santa Clara attack and defence ratings
Mafra
Santa Clara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mafra vs Santa Clara: result vs prediction
Mafra 3 – 2 Santa Clara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mafra vs Santa Clara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 55.1% | 1.81 | -3.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mafra | 20.0% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Santa Clara | 55.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win | 21.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 56.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 11.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Mafra vs Santa Clara stats
Mafra and Santa Clara recent form
| Mafra |
DWL |
| Santa Clara |
WDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
Mafra vs Santa Clara head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-12 | Mafra | Santa Clara | Segunda Liga | 0-2 |
| 2024-01-06 | Santa Clara | Mafra | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mafra vs Santa Clara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.9%, draw 23.2%, away 58.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.30 | 3.94 | 1.57 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 4.00 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 5.35 | 3.94 | 1.55 |
| Pinnacle | 4.93 | 4.01 | 1.56 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 3.50 | 1.57 |