Mafra
vs
Santa Clara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Santa Clara
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Mafra vs Santa Clara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mafra vs Santa Clara
| Probability | Mafra | Draw | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.3% | 29.5% | 43.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.3% | 29.5% | 43.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Santa Clara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Mafra vs Santa Clara match preview
Mafra faces Santa Clara in the Taça de Portugal with kickoff set for October 18, 2026. The model indicates a 27% probability of a Mafra victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 43% likelihood that Santa Clara will win. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability. Expected goals are 1.05 for Mafra and 1.38 for Santa Clara, suggesting a slight edge for the visitors in terms of offensive output.
Recent form shows Mafra with a draw, a win, and a loss in their last three matches, while Santa Clara has a more favorable record, achieving two wins and a draw in their last three outings. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 44%, and both teams scoring is assessed at 50%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mafra and Santa Clara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Mafra and Santa Clara attack and defence ratings
Mafra
Santa Clara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mafra vs Santa Clara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mafra | 27.3% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Santa Clara | 43.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
Mafra vs Santa Clara stats
Mafra and Santa Clara recent form
| Mafra |
DWL |
| Santa Clara |
DWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.