Sanjoanense
vs
Nacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sanjoanense
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Sanjoanense vs Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sanjoanense vs Nacional
| Probability | Sanjoanense | Draw | Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.1% | 20.3% | 14.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 65.1% | 20.3% | 14.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sanjoanense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 1 for the opposition.
Sanjoanense vs Nacional match preview
Sanjoanense is favored in their upcoming match against Nacional in the Taça de Portugal, with a 65% probability of winning compared to Nacional's 15%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Sanjoanense, with an expected goals tally of 2.29 for Sanjoanense and 1.02 for Nacional. Notably, there is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams have a 58% likelihood of finding the net.
In terms of recent form, Sanjoanense has recorded two wins and one loss in their last three matches, while Nacional is struggling with five consecutive losses followed by one win. This contrast in form may play a significant role in the match dynamics, although the confidence grade remains at C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sanjoanense and Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Sanjoanense and Nacional attack and defence ratings
Sanjoanense
Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sanjoanense vs Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanjoanense | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sanjoanense win | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanjoanense | 65.1% |
| Draw | 20.3% | |
| Nacional | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% |
| No | 41.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanjoanense win | 43.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 34.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 9.4% |
Sanjoanense vs Nacional stats
Sanjoanense and Nacional recent form
| Sanjoanense |
WWL |
| Nacional |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.