Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·Round of 64
Sanjoanense
vs
Nacional
1 – 0 Full time
| 33′ | D. Dongmo | ||
| 54′ | Nacional | ||
| 61′ | Sanjoanense | ||
| 82′ | S. Maxwell | ||
| 83′ | Sanjoanense |
Sanjoanense
26%
Draw
20%
Nacional
54%
Sanjoanense vs Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sanjoanense vs Nacional
| Probability | Sanjoanense | Draw | Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.6% | 19.3% | 15.1% |
| Market | 13.4% | 19.9% | 66.7% |
| Final | 26.4% | 19.7% | 53.8% |
| Edge | +13.0% | -0.1% | -12.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
69%
No goals
4%
Sanjoanense and Nacional expected goals
Sanjoanense
2.45
Nacional
1.13
Total expected goals: 3.58
Sanjoanense and Nacional attack and defence ratings
Sanjoanense
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
0.99 -1%
Nacional
Attack
0.76 -24%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sanjoanense vs Nacional: result vs prediction
Sanjoanense 1 – 0 Nacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- União Santarém v GIL Vicente — match page
- Chaves v Os Marialvas — match page
- Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC — team news & stats
- Farense vs AD Marco 09 — team news & stats
- Vianense v Leixoes — match page
- Atlético CP vs Vizela
- Florgrade vs Portimonense — team news & stats
- Fazendense v Estrela — match page
Before and after this match
Sanjoanense vs Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 53.8% | 1.86 | -12.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanjoanense | 26.4% |
| Draw | 19.7% | |
| Nacional | 53.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nacional win | 5.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 9.3% | |
| Loss | 84.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
Sanjoanense vs Nacional stats
Sanjoanense and Nacional recent form
| Sanjoanense |
WWL |
| Nacional |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
Sanjoanense vs Nacional head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Sanjoanense vs Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.4%, draw 19.9%, away 66.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.02 | 4.60 | 1.39 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 5.00 | 1.38 |
| BetVictor | 7.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
| Marathonbet | 6.95 | 4.60 | 1.38 |
| Pinnacle | 6.69 | 4.35 | 1.33 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.36 |