Rio Ave
vs
Nacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rio Ave
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Rio Ave vs Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rio Ave vs Nacional
| Probability | Rio Ave | Draw | Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.6% | 28.5% | 33.9% |
| Market | 41.7% | 28.9% | 29.4% |
| Final | 40.7% | 28.8% | 30.5% |
| Edge | -4.1% | -0.4% | +4.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rio Ave vs Nacional match preview
Rio Ave faces Nacional in the Primeira Liga with model probabilities suggesting a competitive match. Rio Ave holds a 38% chance of winning, while Nacional is slightly behind at 34%, with a 28% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals indicate a close contest, with Rio Ave at 1.37 and Nacional at 1.29. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Rio Ave, occurring with an 8% probability.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Rio Ave recording one win in their last six matches (L-D-L-L-W-L) and Nacional losing five of their last six (L-L-L-L-L-W). In their last two head-to-head encounters, Rio Ave has not secured a win, with one draw and one victory for Nacional. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcomes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rio Ave and Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Rio Ave and Nacional attack and defence ratings
Rio Ave
Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rio Ave vs Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rio Ave | 40.7% | 2.46 | -4.1% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rio Ave | 40.7% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Nacional | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rio Ave win | 17.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 62.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Rio Ave vs Nacional stats
Rio Ave and Nacional recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rio Ave and Nacional season so far
Rio Ave record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Nacional record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Rio Ave vs Nacional head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Nacional | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Rio Ave | Nacional | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rio Ave vs Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.7%, draw 28.9%, away 29.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.46 | 3.21 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.34 | 3.35 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.32 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.25 | 3.24 |
| SBO | 2.13 | 3.00 | 2.87 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .