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Primeira Liga · Full time ·Matchday 8

Rio Ave vs Nacional

3 – 2 Full time

32′N. Kader
39′Sebastian Clemensen
50′João Tomé Baptista
54′João Tomé Baptista
57′Diogo Bezerra
59′N. Kader
63′Sebastian ClemensenRoland Galcik
63′Miguel PatricíoFrancisco Petrasso
68′Daniel de Melo Araujo JuniorFernando Nava Ortega
68′Chiheb LabidiMiguel Baeza
72′Jalen Blesa
73′Jalen Blesa
76′Diogo BezerraDiogo Nascimento
76′Malik SelloukiSimón García
78′Jalen BlesaTamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro
78′Matchoi DjalóAllen Obando
81′N. KaderJoel da Silva
81′Song Min-kyuStavros Gavriel
90′Roland Galcik

Estádio dos Arcos, Condi TownReferee: Carlos Macedo

Rio Ave 41%
Draw 29%
Nacional 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 5
56 Possession % 44
8 Corners 8
7 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 3
3 Saves 3
361 Accurate passes 244

Rio Ave vs Nacional overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Rio Ave vs Nacional

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRio AveDrawNacional
Model37.3%28.5%34.2%
Market42.2%28.7%29.1%
Final41.0%28.7%30.3%
Edge-1.2%-0.1%+1.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Rio Ave ↓ / Nacional → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Rio Ave and Nacional expected goals

Rio Ave 1.37
Nacional 1.30

Total expected goals: 2.66

Rio Ave and Nacional attack and defence ratings

Rio Ave

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 1.37 +37%

Nacional

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.28 +28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Rio Ave vs Nacional: result vs prediction

Rio Ave 3 – 2 Nacional

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Primeira Liga

Before and after this match

Rio Ave vs Nacional markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rio Ave 41.0% 2.44 -1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.3% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.4% 1.81 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.3% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.7% 1.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Rio Ave41.0%
Draw28.7%
Nacional30.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%
Both teams to scoreYes55.4%
No44.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.7%
12 (either side)71.3%
X2 (draw or away)59.0%
Handicap -1Rio Ave win17.7%
Push (exactly one goal)19.6%
Loss62.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
2-18.4%
1-08.3%

Rio Ave vs Nacional stats

Rio Ave and Nacional recent form

newest first
Rio Ave LDLLWL
Nacional LLLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Rio Ave and Nacional going into this match

league record before kick-off

Rio Ave record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
  • 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nacional record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Rio Ave vs Nacional head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Rio Ave wins 4Draws 2Nacional wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-25NacionalRio AvePrimeira Liga4-0
2025-08-17Rio AveNacionalPrimeira Liga1-1
2025-05-10NacionalRio AvePrimeira Liga3-3
2024-12-29Rio AveNacionalPrimeira Liga2-1
2024-07-31Rio AveNacionalFriendlies Clubs1-1
2022-04-10NacionalRio AveSegunda Liga2-0
2021-11-28Rio AveNacionalSegunda Liga1-0
2021-05-19NacionalRio AvePrimeira Liga1-2
2021-02-05Rio AveNacionalPrimeira Liga0-0
2019-03-17NacionalRio AvePrimeira Liga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Rio Ave vs Nacional odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.2%, draw 28.7%, away 29.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.24 3.48 3.36
Bet365 2.15 3.30 3.30
BetVictor 2.15 3.25 3.13
Betano 2.25 3.30 3.30
Betfair 2.20 3.40 3.20
Dafabet 2.29 3.30 3.30
Marathonbet 2.15 3.34 3.22
Pinnacle 2.25 3.29 3.52
SBO 2.28 3.05 2.92
William Hill 2.25 3.20 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 —
X 3.30 ▲ +0.05
2 3.26 ▲ +0.07

13 snapshots recorded, from .