Alverca
vs
Rio Ave
1 – 0 Full time
| 3′ | Dawda Camara Sankharé | ||
| 59′ | Pedro AmaralMarios Vrushai | ||
| 59′ | Roland GalcikSebastian Clemensen | ||
| 68′ | Lucas Figueiredo dos SantosAndré Vidigal | ||
| 68′ | Dawda Camara SankharéVivaldo Semedo | ||
| 69′ | Miguel PatricíoMalik Sellouki | ||
| 69′ | João Tomé BaptistaTamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro | ||
| 69′ | Tamas NikitscherCaike Lourenço Valença | ||
| 74′ | Francisco ChiquinhoMatheus Franca | ||
| 84′ | Francisco ChissumbaYaya Bojang | ||
| 84′ | Rayan LucasZé Rafael | ||
| 87′ | Simón García | ||
| 88′ | Davy Gui | ||
| 90′ | André Vidigal | ||
| 90′ | Francisco Petrasso |
Match stats
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 285 | Accurate passes | 331 |
Alverca vs Rio Ave overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alverca vs Rio Ave
| Probability | Alverca | Draw | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.6% | 23.1% | 19.4% |
| Market | 48.3% | 27.0% | 24.7% |
| Final | 50.6% | 26.1% | 23.4% |
| Edge | +9.3% | -4.0% | -5.3% |
Why Alverca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.12.
- The market prices Alverca below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alverca and Rio Ave expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Alverca and Rio Ave attack and defence ratings
Alverca
Rio Ave
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alverca vs Rio Ave: result vs prediction
Alverca 1 – 0 Rio Ave
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alverca vs Rio Ave markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 50.6% | 1.98 | +9.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.8% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 50.6% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Rio Ave | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alverca win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 42.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
Alverca vs Rio Ave stats
Alverca and Rio Ave recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alverca and Rio Ave going into this match
Alverca record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Rio Ave record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Alverca vs Rio Ave head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Rio Ave | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Alverca | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Alverca | Rio Ave | Taça de Portugal | 2-2 |
| 2019-11-24 | Rio Ave | Alverca | Taça de Portugal | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alverca vs Rio Ave odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.2%, draw 27.1%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.60 | 3.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.35 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.46 | 3.82 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.56 | 4.04 |
| SBO | 1.88 | 3.06 | 3.44 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .