Rio Ave
vs
Estrela
3 – 3 Full time
| 21′ | Ianis Stoica | ||
| 26′ | Max Scholze | ||
| 44′ | Francisco Petrasso | ||
| 45′ | Francisco Petrasso | ||
| 53′ | Abraham Marcus | ||
| 54′ | Sebastian ClemensenRoland Galcik | ||
| 56′ | Roland Galcik | ||
| 58′ | Eddy Doué | ||
| 61′ | Abraham Marcus | ||
| 63′ | Miguel PatricíoTamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro | ||
| 63′ | Eddy DouéJoan Jordan | ||
| 68′ | João Tomé BaptistaNelson Abbey | ||
| 68′ | Tamas NikitscherMalik Sellouki | ||
| 68′ | Pedro AmaralMarios Vrushai | ||
| 71′ | Max ScholzeKevin Hoog Jansson | ||
| 72′ | Santiago SerraJefferson Encada | ||
| 76′ | Stefan Lekovic | ||
| 78′ | Jalen Blesa | ||
| 84′ | Abraham MarcusBeni Souza | ||
| 84′ | Ianis StoicaAlisson Souza | ||
| 90′ | Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 251 | Accurate passes | 425 |
Rio Ave vs Estrela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rio Ave vs Estrela
| Probability | Rio Ave | Draw | Estrela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.2% | 24.2% | 54.6% |
| Market | 34.8% | 29.5% | 35.7% |
| Final | 31.4% | 28.2% | 40.4% |
| Edge | -13.6% | -5.3% | +18.9% |
Why Estrela
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Estrela below the model: +18.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rio Ave and Estrela expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
Rio Ave and Estrela attack and defence ratings
Rio Ave
Estrela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rio Ave vs Estrela: result vs prediction
Rio Ave 3 – 3 Estrela
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rio Ave vs Estrela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela | 40.4% | 2.47 | +18.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rio Ave | 31.4% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Estrela | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrela win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 45.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 8.7% |
Rio Ave vs Estrela stats
Rio Ave and Estrela recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rio Ave and Estrela going into this match
Rio Ave record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Estrela record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rio Ave vs Estrela head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Rio Ave | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Estrela | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-05 | Rio Ave | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-23 | Estrela | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-14 | Estrela | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-02 | Rio Ave | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-14 | Rio Ave | Estrela | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
| 2021-09-10 | Estrela | Rio Ave | Segunda Liga | 2-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rio Ave vs Estrela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 29.4%, away 35.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.79 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| 888Sport | 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 3.18 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.31 | 2.74 |
| SBO | 2.60 | 2.96 | 2.33 |
| Unibet | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .