Primeira Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Arouca
vs
Santa Clara
1 – 2 Full time
| 22′ | Gonçalo Paciência | ||
| 23′ | Pablo GozálbezMateo Flores | ||
| 33′ | Emanuel Moreira | ||
| 36′ | José Tavares | ||
| 46′ | Iván Barbero | ||
| 54′ | Näis Djouahra | ||
| 62′ | José TavaresDani Borges | ||
| 64′ | Vasco César Freire de Seabra | ||
| 65′ | Tiago Ribeiro | ||
| 65′ | Espen van Ee | ||
| 68′ | Espen van EePedro Santos | ||
| 68′ | Näis DjouahraGabrijel Rukavina | ||
| 72′ | Pedro Ferreira | ||
| 73′ | Tiago RibeiroHenrique Silva | ||
| 73′ | Brenner Lucas Goncalves SantosWelinton Torrão | ||
| 73′ | Gonçalo PaciênciaLuis Fernando Santos Oliveira | ||
| 81′ | Alfonso TrezzaBrian Mansilla | ||
| 81′ | Orest LebedenkoFally Mayulu | ||
| 82′ | Vinicius lopesLuiz Fernando Salles De Castro | ||
| 84′ | Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro | ||
| 85′ | Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro | ||
| 87′ | Gabrijel Rukavina |
Arouca
36%
Draw
31%
Santa Clara
33%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 453 | Accurate passes | 220 |
Arouca vs Santa Clara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arouca vs Santa Clara
| Probability | Arouca | Draw | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.8% | 32.5% | 31.8% |
| Market | 36.4% | 30.7% | 32.9% |
| Final | 36.2% | 31.2% | 32.6% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +1.7% | -1.1% |
Why Arouca
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
64%
3+ goals
36%
No goals
13%
Arouca and Santa Clara expected goals
Arouca
1.10
Santa Clara
1.02
Total expected goals: 2.12
Arouca and Santa Clara attack and defence ratings
Arouca
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
0.76 -24%
Santa Clara
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.68 -32%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Arouca vs Santa Clara: result vs prediction
Arouca 1 – 2 Santa Clara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arouca vs Santa Clara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 36.2% | 2.76 | -0.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 36.2% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Santa Clara | 32.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arouca win | 15.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 64.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-0 | 11.9% |
Arouca vs Santa Clara stats
Arouca and Santa Clara recent form
| Arouca |
DWLWWW |
| Santa Clara |
WDWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arouca and Santa Clara going into this match
Arouca record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santa Clara record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Arouca vs Santa Clara head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Arouca wins
3Draws
3Santa Clara wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Santa Clara | Arouca | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Arouca | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Santa Clara | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Santa Clara | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-15 | Arouca | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-11 | Arouca | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2022-12-16 | Santa Clara | Arouca | Taça da Liga | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-20 | Santa Clara | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2022-04-15 | Arouca | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2021-12-05 | Santa Clara | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arouca vs Santa Clara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.1%, draw 30.3%, away 33.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.76 |
| 1xBet | 2.69 | 3.06 | 3.00 |
| 888Sport | 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.15 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.59 | 2.94 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.66 | 3.08 | 3.01 |
| SBO | 2.41 | 2.86 | 2.58 |
| Unibet | 2.63 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.60 ▼ -0.10
X
3.08 ▼ -0.02
2
2.88 ▲ +0.25
12 snapshots recorded, from .