Primeira Liga · 2026-09-07T19:15:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 5

Estoril vs Arouca

0 – 0 Full time

30′			Antef Tsoungui
45′			Ferro
46′			A. TsounguiJ. Arnolin
46′			E. van EePedro Santos
71′			Jordan Arnolin
72′			João Carvalho
75′			F. GarciaPeixinho
75′			P. GozalbezM. Flores
75′			I. BarberoD. Nandin
78′			A. LacximicantR. Guitane
79′			R. SanchezP. Carvalho
85′			J. HolsgroveT. Brito
85′			A. TrezzaB. Mansilla
86′			Brian Mansilla

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, EstorilReferee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal

Estoril

33%

Draw

27%

Arouca

40%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

18	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	2
47	Possession %	53
8	Corners	2
12	Fouls	9
0	Offsides	2
2	Saves	8
359	Accurate passes	422

Estoril vs Arouca overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Estoril vs Arouca

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Estoril	Draw	Arouca
Model	15.3%	25.3%	59.5%
Market	38.6%	28.2%	33.2%
Final	32.8%	27.5%	39.7%
Edge	-23.3%	-3.0%	+26.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Arouca

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.79.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Arouca below the model: +26.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

91%

2+ goals

73%

3+ goals

47%

No goals

Estoril and Arouca expected goals

Estoril

0.79

Arouca

1.76

Total expected goals: 2.54

Estoril and Arouca attack and defence ratings

Estoril

Attack

0.62 -38%

Defence

1.22 +22%

Arouca

Attack

1.21 +21%

Defence

0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Estoril vs Arouca: result vs prediction

Estoril 0 – 0 Arouca

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Primeira Liga

FC Porto vs Moreirense · 2026-09-04
Estrela vs Famalicao — team news & stats · 2026-09-05
Maritimo v Benfica — match page · 2026-09-05
Alverca v SC Braga — match page · 2026-09-05
Sporting CP v Nacional — match page · 2026-09-05
Santa Clara vs Rio Ave · 2026-09-06
Vitória SC vs Casa Pia — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
GIL Vicente vs Academico Viseu · 2026-09-06

Before and after this match

Estoril, previous: Benfica – Estoril, 2026-08-31
Estoril, next: SC Braga vs Estoril prediction
Arouca, previous: Arouca vs Maritimo: odds and pick
Arouca, next: Arouca vs Santa Clara prediction

Estoril vs Arouca markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Arouca	39.7%	2.52	+26.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	53.3%	1.88	—	—
Both teams to score	No	53.9%	1.86	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.5%	1.38	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	40.5%	2.47	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Estoril	32.8%
	Draw	27.5%
	Arouca	39.7%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46.7%
	Under 2.5	53.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	46.1%
	No	53.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	60.3%
	12 (either side)	72.5%
	X2 (draw or away)	67.2%
Handicap -1	Arouca win	34.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	24.7%
	Loss	40.5%
Correct score (top 3)	0-1	12.7%
	0-2	12.1%
	1-1	11.9%

Estoril vs Arouca stats

Estoril and Arouca recent form

newest first

Estoril	LLLDLD
Arouca	WLWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Estoril vs Arouca head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Estoril wins 1Draws 5Arouca wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-06	Arouca	Estoril	Primeira Liga	3-2
2025-11-07	Estoril	Arouca	Primeira Liga	4-3
2025-03-16	Arouca	Estoril	Primeira Liga	1-1
2024-10-26	Estoril	Arouca	Primeira Liga	4-1
2024-01-20	Estoril	Arouca	Primeira Liga	1-2
2023-08-13	Arouca	Estoril	Primeira Liga	4-3
2023-05-15	Estoril	Arouca	Primeira Liga	2-0
2023-01-07	Arouca	Estoril	Primeira Liga	2-0
2022-01-27	Estoril	Arouca	Primeira Liga	1-2
2021-08-07	Arouca	Estoril	Primeira Liga	0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Estoril vs Arouca odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.6%, draw 28.2%, away 33.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.32	3.35	2.94
1xBet	2.52	3.45	2.90
Bet365	2.45	3.40	2.80
BetVictor	2.38	3.30	2.70
Betano	2.45	3.35	2.90
Betfair	2.45	3.30	2.88
Dafabet	2.50	3.45	2.85
Marathonbet	2.43	3.32	2.79
Pinnacle	2.56	3.40	2.87
SBO	2.37	3.18	2.67
Superbet	2.50	3.35	2.82
Unibet	2.33	3.40	2.95
William Hill	2.45	3.25	2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▲ +0.38

X 3.35 ▼ -0.07

2 2.85 ▼ -0.59

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-01T08:10:01Z.