Garuda Lions
Today
Primeira Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia

0 – 0 Full time

29′A. GomesI. Mandic
46′K. PrietoJP
57′A. JattaH. Araujo
57′B. PauwelsM. Salah
62′Gustavo Silva
62′Ivan Mandić
63′A. NdoyeA. Jakupovic
70′KalyJ. Goulart
71′A. SidibeO. Rivas Viondi
71′M. NogueiraO. Camara
72′JP
86′Thiago Balieiro
87′SamuG. Nogueira
87′L. DoucetP. Ouotro

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, GuimaraesReferee: Gustavo Correia, Portugal

Vitória SC 62%
Draw 25%
Casa Pia 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

29 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 3
74 Possession % 26
17 Corners 4
16 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 0
3 Saves 7
454 Accurate passes 107

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vitória SC vs Casa Pia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVitória SCDrawCasa Pia
Model52.8%31.2%16.0%
Market64.7%22.4%12.9%
Final61.7%24.6%13.6%
Edge-11.9%+8.8%+3.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Vitória SC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.60.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Vitória SC ↓ / Casa Pia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 1 18% 13% 2 13% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 58%
3+ goals 30%
No goals 16%

Vitória SC and Casa Pia expected goals

Vitória SC 1.32
Casa Pia 0.60

Total expected goals: 1.92

Vitória SC and Casa Pia attack and defence ratings

Vitória SC

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Casa Pia

Attack 0.48 -52%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia: result vs prediction

Vitória SC 0 – 0 Casa Pia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Primeira Liga

Before and after this match

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vitória SC 61.7% 1.62 -11.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 69.9% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score No 65.7% 1.52 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.4% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.0% 2.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Vitória SC61.7%
Draw24.6%
Casa Pia13.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530.1%
Under 2.569.9%
Both teams to scoreYes34.3%
No65.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.4%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)38.3%
Handicap -1Vitória SC win26.1%
Push (exactly one goal)26.9%
Loss47.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-018.1%
0-015.8%
1-112.8%

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia stats

Vitória SC and Casa Pia recent form

newest first
Vitória SC LWLLLL
Casa Pia LLLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Vitória SC wins 4Draws 3Casa Pia wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-11Vitória SCCasa PiaPrimeira Liga0-1
2025-12-28Casa PiaVitória SCPrimeira Liga0-0
2025-03-01Vitória SCCasa PiaPrimeira Liga1-0
2024-09-28Casa PiaVitória SCPrimeira Liga1-1
2024-02-24Vitória SCCasa PiaPrimeira Liga0-2
2023-09-23Casa PiaVitória SCPrimeira Liga0-0
2023-02-19Casa PiaVitória SCPrimeira Liga0-0
2022-08-29Vitória SCCasa PiaPrimeira Liga0-1
2021-08-01Casa PiaVitória SCTaça da Liga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.3%, draw 22.8%, away 13.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.51 3.85 6.75
1xBet 1.50 4.36 7.37
Bet365 1.44 4.10 7.50
BetVictor 1.44 3.90 7.00
Betano 1.55 4.00 6.50
Betfair 1.50 4.00 6.50
Dafabet 1.54 4.20 6.60
Marathonbet 1.44 4.20 7.10
Pinnacle 1.48 4.38 7.41
SBO 1.48 3.58 5.22
Superbet 1.53 4.15 6.30
Unibet 1.46 4.25 6.75
William Hill 1.44 4.00 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▼ -0.26
X 4.15 ▲ +0.38
2 7.23 ▲ +2.11

14 snapshots recorded, from .