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Primeira Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Sporting CP vs Nacional

2 – 0 Full time

5′Maximiliano Araújo
20′Sergi Altimira
32′L. Suarez
46′Leo SantosDeivison
48′Markus Jensen
49′F. Goncalves
62′M. JensenC. Labidi
62′Pablo RuanA. Obando
67′G. CatamoLuis Guilherme
67′L. SuarezF. Ioannidis
67′R. ZalazarN. Irankunda
73′S. GavrielM. Djalo
78′M. AraujoG. Vagiannidis
80′M. BaezaDaniel Junior
87′S. AltimiraS. Andersen

Estádio José Alvalade, LisbonReferee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal

Sporting CP 78%
Draw 14%
Nacional 8%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 3
8 Shots on target 2
67 Possession % 33
12 Corners 0
10 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2
2 Saves 6
586 Accurate passes 255

Sporting CP vs Nacional overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting CP vs Nacional

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySporting CPDrawNacional
Model66.0%20.5%13.4%
Market82.0%11.7%6.3%
Final78.0%13.9%8.1%
Edge-16.0%+8.8%+7.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Sporting CP

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.93.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sporting CP ↓ / Nacional → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 10% 2 11% 10% 3 8% 7% 4+ 7% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Sporting CP and Nacional expected goals

Sporting CP 2.22
Nacional 0.93

Total expected goals: 3.15

Sporting CP and Nacional attack and defence ratings

Sporting CP

Attack 1.61 +61%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Nacional

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sporting CP vs Nacional: result vs prediction

Sporting CP 2 – 0 Nacional

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Primeira Liga

Before and after this match

Sporting CP vs Nacional markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sporting CP 78.0% 1.28 -16.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.2% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.9% 1.82 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 91.9% 1.09 — —
Handicap -1 Sporting CP win 43.2% 2.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sporting CP78.0%
Draw13.9%
Nacional8.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.2%
Under 2.538.8%
Both teams to scoreYes54.9%
No45.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)91.9%
12 (either side)86.1%
X2 (draw or away)22.0%
Handicap -1Sporting CP win43.2%
Push (exactly one goal)22.5%
Loss34.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.6%
2-19.8%
1-19.7%

Sporting CP vs Nacional stats

Sporting CP and Nacional recent form

newest first
Sporting CP WWWDLW
Nacional LLWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sporting CP and Nacional going into this match

league record before kick-off

Nacional record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Sporting CP vs Nacional head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

10Sporting CP wins 0Draws 0Nacional wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-01Sporting CPNacionalPrimeira Liga2-1
2025-08-23NacionalSporting CPPrimeira Liga1-4
2025-01-25Sporting CPNacionalPrimeira Liga2-0
2024-10-29Sporting CPNacionalTaça da Liga3-1
2024-08-17NacionalSporting CPPrimeira Liga1-6
2021-05-01Sporting CPNacionalPrimeira Liga2-0
2021-01-08NacionalSporting CPPrimeira Liga0-2
2019-04-19NacionalSporting CPPrimeira Liga0-1
2018-12-16Sporting CPNacionalPrimeira Liga5-2
2017-03-18Sporting CPNacionalPrimeira Liga2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sporting CP vs Nacional odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 80.1%, draw 13.3%, away 6.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.20 6.00 13.50
1xBet 1.16 9.40 16.50
Bet365 1.14 7.50 15.00
BetVictor 1.13 7.00 15.00
Betano 1.23 6.30 12.50
Betfair 1.18 6.50 15.00
Dafabet 1.22 7.20 13.00
Marathonbet 1.14 8.00 14.25
Pinnacle 1.15 8.98 16.50
SBO 1.16 5.80 8.87
Superbet 1.22 6.90 11.00
Unibet 1.18 7.00 14.00
William Hill 1.15 8.00 13.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.15 ▼ -0.06
X 8.00 ▲ +1.20
2 15.00 ▲ +1.00

13 snapshots recorded, from .