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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray

3 – 1 Full time

5′G. Inacio
22′Sergi Altimira
27′G. Catamo
43′Luis Javier Suárez
52′Eren Elmalı
57′L. Suarez
58′L. SaneR. Leao
63′R. Zalazar
65′A. BatrakovD. Gul
66′R. ZalazarF. Goncalves
74′I. DoumbiaS. Andersen
74′L. SuarezF. Ioannidis
80′Deniz Gül
85′E. QuaresmaZ. Debast
85′G. VagiannidisI. Fresneda
85′Y. AkgunI. Gundogan
85′L. TorreiraL. Ugochukwu
85′Gabriel SaraR. Nhaga
90′Ismail Jakobs

Estádio José Alvalade, LisbonReferee: Espen Eskas, Norway

Sporting CP 58%
Draw 22%
Galatasaray 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 3
38 Possession % 62
1 Corners 4
13 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 0
3 Saves 2
299 Accurate passes 519

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting CP vs Galatasaray

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySporting CPDrawGalatasaray
Model66.4%18.5%15.1%
Market55.1%23.7%21.3%
Final57.9%22.4%19.7%
Edge+11.3%-5.2%-6.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Sporting CP

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.20.
  • The market prices Sporting CP below the model: +11.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sporting CP ↓ / Galatasaray → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 8% 2 8% 9% 5% 3 7% 8% 4+ 8% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Sporting CP and Galatasaray expected goals

Sporting CP 2.59
Galatasaray 1.20

Total expected goals: 3.79

Sporting CP and Galatasaray attack and defence ratings

Sporting CP

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.69 -31%

Galatasaray

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray: result vs prediction

Sporting CP 3 – 1 Galatasaray

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sporting CP 57.9% 1.73 +11.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.1% 1.37 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.6% 1.53 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.3% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Sporting CP win 46.2% 2.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sporting CP57.9%
Draw22.4%
Galatasaray19.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.1%
Under 2.526.9%
Both teams to scoreYes65.6%
No34.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.3%
12 (either side)77.6%
X2 (draw or away)42.1%
Handicap -1Sporting CP win46.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.4%
Loss33.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.1%
3-17.8%
1-17.7%

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray stats

Sporting CP and Galatasaray recent form

newest first
Sporting CP WWWWDL
Galatasaray WWWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.1%, draw 23.7%, away 21.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.71 3.85 4.45
1xBet 1.81 4.11 4.57
888Sport 1.73 3.80 4.33
Bet365 1.67 4.20 4.50
BetVictor 1.70 4.20 4.40
Betano 1.75 4.15 4.65
Betfair 1.73 4.00 4.75
Dafabet 1.88 3.85 4.10
Marathonbet 1.78 4.05 4.50
Pinnacle 1.71 4.12 4.85
SBO 1.74 3.90 4.08
Superbet 1.73 4.10 4.40
Unibet 1.72 4.00 4.60
William Hill 1.73 3.80 4.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.73 ▼ -0.19
X 4.03 ▲ +0.30
2 4.47 ▲ +0.64

10 snapshots recorded, from .