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Primeira Liga · Full time ·Matchday 6

Famalicao vs Sporting CP

1 – 1 Full time

45′Gil Dias
45′Gil DiasRoméo Beney
60′Georgios KoutsiasUmar Abubakar
64′Luís GuilhermeRodrigo Zalazar
64′Flávio GonçalvesFotis Ioannidis
73′Geny Catamo
75′Issa DoumbiaSilas Andersen
75′Geny CatamoNestory Irankunda
78′Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
80′Carlos Augusto Soares da Costa Faria Carvalhal
81′Luis Suárez
82′Marcos PeñaPatricio Salas
83′Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraÓscar Aranda Subiela
86′Luis Suárez
87′Roméo Beney
90′Nestory Irankunda
90′Gonçalo Inácio
90′Iván Fresneda

Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de FamalicaoReferee: Luís Godinho, Portugal

Famalicao 16%
Draw 23%
Sporting CP 61%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

5 Shots 16
2 Shots on target 5
32 Possession % 68
4 Corners 4
14 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1
4 Saves 2
230 Accurate passes 580

Famalicao vs Sporting CP overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Famalicao vs Sporting CP

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFamalicaoDrawSporting CP
Model20.7%27.0%52.3%
Market14.4%21.6%64.0%
Final16.0%22.9%61.1%
Edge+6.3%+5.4%-11.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Sporting CP

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Famalicao ↓ / Sporting CP → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 11% 10% 1 13% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Famalicao and Sporting CP expected goals

Famalicao 0.95
Sporting CP 1.64

Total expected goals: 2.59

Famalicao and Sporting CP attack and defence ratings

Famalicao

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Sporting CP

Attack 1.68 +68%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Famalicao vs Sporting CP: result vs prediction

Famalicao 1 – 1 Sporting CP

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Primeira Liga

Before and after this match

Famalicao vs Sporting CP markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sporting CP 61.1% 1.64 -11.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.1% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.6% 1.97 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 84.0% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.7% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Famalicao16.0%
Draw22.9%
Sporting CP61.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%
Both teams to scoreYes50.6%
No49.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)38.9%
12 (either side)77.1%
X2 (draw or away)84.0%
Handicap -1Sporting CP win28.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss47.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
0-111.1%
0-210.1%

Famalicao vs Sporting CP stats

Famalicao and Sporting CP recent form

newest first
Famalicao DDLLDW
Sporting CP WWWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Famalicao and Sporting CP going into this match

league record before kick-off

Famalicao record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sporting CP record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.

Famalicao vs Sporting CP head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Famalicao wins 0Draws 10Sporting CP wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-15Sporting CPFamalicaoPrimeira Liga1-0
2025-09-13FamalicaoSporting CPPrimeira Liga1-2
2025-03-15Sporting CPFamalicaoPrimeira Liga3-1
2024-10-26FamalicaoSporting CPPrimeira Liga0-3
2024-04-16FamalicaoSporting CPPrimeira Liga0-1
2023-08-27Sporting CPFamalicaoPrimeira Liga1-0
2023-04-30Sporting CPFamalicaoPrimeira Liga2-1
2022-11-13FamalicaoSporting CPPrimeira Liga1-2
2022-02-06Sporting CPFamalicaoPrimeira Liga2-0
2021-10-26Sporting CPFamalicaoTaça da Liga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Famalicao vs Sporting CP odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 15.3%, draw 22.1%, away 62.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 5.75 4.00 1.55
1xBet 6.39 4.62 1.52
888Sport 4.80 4.00 1.60
Bet365 6.50 4.33 1.48
BetVictor 6.50 4.10 1.44
Betano 7.00 4.55 1.52
Betfair 7.00 4.33 1.44
Dafabet 5.60 4.20 1.60
Marathonbet 6.15 4.45 1.46
Pinnacle 6.51 4.64 1.50
SBO 5.22 3.69 1.46
Unibet 4.90 4.25 1.60
William Hill 6.00 4.20 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.50 ▲ +1.81
X 4.33 ▲ +0.65
2 1.46 ▼ -0.29

14 snapshots recorded, from .