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Primeira Liga · Full time ·Matchday 6

Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC

2 – 1 Full time

28′Lohann Doucet
45′Lohann DoucetGonçalo Nogueira
53′Lorougnon Gohi
60′Beni MukendiAlan de Souza Guimarães
67′Gonçalo Nogueira
68′Cihan KahramanAlejandro Mestanza
68′Lorougnon GohiNils Mortimer
75′Arnel Jakupović
76′André Clóvis
77′Arnel JakupovićAlioune Ndoye
77′Oumar CamaraMiguel Nogueira
80′Alejandro Mestanza
84′Ahmed SidibéToni Borevković
86′Luis Silva
88′Toni Borevković
90′RobinhoTomas Domingos
90′André ClóvisMohamed Bouldini
90′Mohamed Bouldini
90′Gustavo CostaPedro Barcelos
90′Alioune Ndoye
90′Nils Mortimer

Estádio Municipal do Fontelo, ViseuReferee: Carlos Macedo, Portugal

Academico Viseu 31%
Draw 29%
Vitória SC 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 22
4 Shots on target 7
46 Possession % 54
4 Corners 8
14 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 1
6 Saves 2
271 Accurate passes 325

Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAcademico ViseuDrawVitória SC
Model47.6%32.5%20.0%
Market24.8%28.5%46.7%
Final30.5%29.5%40.0%
Edge+22.7%+4.0%-26.7%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Academico Vise ↓ / Vitória SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 9% 1 16% 14% 2 11% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 59%
3+ goals 30%
No goals 16%

Academico Viseu and Vitória SC expected goals

Academico Viseu 1.22
Vitória SC 0.71

Total expected goals: 1.93

Academico Viseu and Vitória SC attack and defence ratings

Academico Viseu

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Vitória SC

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC: result vs prediction

Academico Viseu 2 – 1 Vitória SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Primeira Liga

Before and after this match

Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vitória SC 40.0% 2.50 -26.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 69.4% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score No 63.0% 1.59 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.5% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 79.8% 1.25 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Academico Viseu30.5%
Draw29.5%
Vitória SC40.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530.6%
Under 2.569.4%
Both teams to scoreYes37.0%
No63.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.0%
12 (either side)70.5%
X2 (draw or away)69.5%
Handicap -1Vitória SC win6.1%
Push (exactly one goal)14.2%
Loss79.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.5%
0-015.7%
1-113.8%

Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC stats

Academico Viseu and Vitória SC recent form

newest first
Academico Viseu WLDLDD
Vitória SC DLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Academico Viseu and Vitória SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Academico Viseu record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vitória SC record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.6%, draw 28.5%, away 45.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.50 3.30 2.08
1xBet 3.93 3.38 2.08
888Sport 3.40 3.10 2.10
Bet365 3.80 3.30 2.00
BetVictor 3.60 3.25 1.95
Betano 3.90 3.30 2.05
Betfair 3.70 3.40 2.05
Dafabet 3.65 3.40 2.13
Marathonbet 3.78 3.25 2.00
Pinnacle 3.98 3.36 2.06
SBO 3.38 3.17 2.01
Superbet 3.60 3.35 2.12
Unibet 3.25 3.30 2.20
William Hill 3.70 3.20 2.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.78 ▲ +0.54
X 3.30 ▼ -0.14
2 2.01 ▼ -0.31

14 snapshots recorded, from .