Nacional
vs
Alverca
1 – 3 Full time
| 18′ | Yaya Bojang | ||
| 34′ | Francisco Chissumba | ||
| 36′ | Dawda Camara Sankharé | ||
| 42′ | Dawda Camara Sankharé | ||
| 45′ | Daniel de Melo Araujo JuniorMatchoi Djaló | ||
| 45′ | Markus JensenSong Min-kyu | ||
| 48′ | Dawda Camara Sankharé | ||
| 54′ | Matheus dos Santos DiasChiheb Labidi | ||
| 65′ | Francisco ChiquinhoMatheus Franca | ||
| 66′ | Lucas Figueiredo dos SantosAndré Vidigal | ||
| 69′ | Stavros GavrielAllen Obando | ||
| 72′ | Dawda Camara SankharéVivaldo Semedo | ||
| 73′ | Diogo Spencer | ||
| 78′ | Pablo RuanFernando Nava Ortega | ||
| 79′ | Davy GuiRayan Lucas | ||
| 79′ | Isaac JamesCedric Nuozzi | ||
| 81′ | Matchoi Djaló |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 2 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 392 | Accurate passes | 291 |
Nacional vs Alverca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nacional vs Alverca
| Probability | Nacional | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.6% | 29.3% | 24.1% |
| Market | 36.0% | 29.0% | 35.0% |
| Final | 38.6% | 29.1% | 32.3% |
| Edge | +10.6% | +0.3% | -10.9% |
Why Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nacional below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nacional and Alverca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Nacional and Alverca attack and defence ratings
Nacional
Alverca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nacional vs Alverca: result vs prediction
Nacional 1 – 3 Alverca
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nacional vs Alverca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 38.6% | 2.59 | +10.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 38.6% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Alverca | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nacional win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 53.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Nacional vs Alverca stats
Nacional and Alverca recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nacional and Alverca going into this match
Nacional record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Alverca record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Nacional vs Alverca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Nacional | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Alverca | Nacional | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nacional vs Alverca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.1%, draw 28.9%, away 35.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| 1xBet | 2.73 | 3.28 | 2.78 |
| 888Sport | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.25 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.16 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.23 | 2.79 |
| SBO | 2.45 | 3.04 | 2.54 |
| Superbet | 2.57 | 3.30 | 2.82 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .