Casa Pia
vs
FC Porto
1 – 4 Full time
| 43′ | Henrique Araújo | ||
| 45′ | Jakub Kiwior | ||
| 45′ | André Silva | ||
| 53′ | Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira | ||
| 54′ | Andre Geraldes | ||
| 60′ | Jakub Kiwior | ||
| 62′ | William GomesBorja Sainz | ||
| 62′ | André SilvaSantiago Giménez | ||
| 66′ | Borja Sainz | ||
| 68′ | Benjamin PauwelsEvans Maurin | ||
| 70′ | Hwang In-BeomAlan Gonzalo Varela | ||
| 74′ | Mohamed Salah El BoukammiriJoão Pedro | ||
| 74′ | Henrique AraújoCassiano | ||
| 80′ | Gabri VeigaSeko Fofana | ||
| 80′ | Alberto CostaMartim Fernandes | ||
| 87′ | David Sousa | ||
| 88′ | João RegoAymen Zouin | ||
| 90′ | Ivan Mandic | ||
| 90′ | Santiago Giménez |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 163 | Accurate passes | 334 |
Casa Pia vs FC Porto overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Casa Pia vs FC Porto
| Probability | Casa Pia | Draw | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.5% | 29.7% | 59.8% |
| Market | 6.6% | 13.8% | 79.6% |
| Final | 7.6% | 17.8% | 74.6% |
| Edge | +3.9% | +15.9% | -19.8% |
Why FC Porto
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.43.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Casa Pia and FC Porto expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.80
Casa Pia and FC Porto attack and defence ratings
Casa Pia
FC Porto
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Casa Pia vs FC Porto: result vs prediction
Casa Pia 1 – 4 FC Porto
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Casa Pia vs FC Porto markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 74.6% | 1.34 | -19.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 92.4% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Casa Pia | 7.6% |
| Draw | 17.8% | |
| FC Porto | 74.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 27.0% |
| No | 73.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 25.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 92.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win | 30.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29.1% | |
| Loss | 40.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 21.7% |
| 0-0 | 17.5% | |
| 0-2 | 15.5% |
Casa Pia vs FC Porto stats
Casa Pia and FC Porto recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Casa Pia and FC Porto going into this match
Casa Pia record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 5 matches.
FC Porto record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Casa Pia vs FC Porto head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | Casa Pia | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | FC Porto | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 4-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Casa Pia | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-02 | FC Porto | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-21 | Casa Pia | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-09 | FC Porto | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 3-1 |
| 2023-05-14 | FC Porto | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-07 | Casa Pia | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2019-12-05 | Casa Pia | FC Porto | Taça da Liga | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Casa Pia vs FC Porto odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 7.2%, draw 15.0%, away 77.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 13.00 | 5.10 | 1.26 |
| 1xBet | 16.50 | 7.80 | 1.18 |
| 888Sport | 11.00 | 5.50 | 1.25 |
| Bet365 | 11.00 | 7.00 | 1.20 |
| BetVictor | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 |
| Betano | 15.50 | 6.90 | 1.23 |
| Betfair | 15.00 | 6.50 | 1.17 |
| Dafabet | 12.00 | 6.00 | 1.27 |
| Marathonbet | 14.25 | 6.80 | 1.17 |
| Pinnacle | 15.15 | 7.38 | 1.19 |
| SBO | 10.12 | 5.51 | 1.22 |
| Superbet | 10.00 | 5.75 | 1.27 |
| Unibet | 12.50 | 5.40 | 1.26 |
| William Hill | 13.00 | 6.50 | 1.18 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .