Estoril
vs
Casa Pia
1 – 2 Full time
| 41′ | Ismael Sierra | ||
| 45′ | Axel CamblanJordan Arnolin | ||
| 45′ | Henrique AraújoAlassana Jatta | ||
| 60′ | Milan RobinAntef Tsoungui | ||
| 60′ | Nail OmerovicRafik Guitane | ||
| 62′ | David Sousa | ||
| 65′ | Mohamed Salah El BoukammiriEvans Maurin | ||
| 65′ | João PedroBenjamin Pauwels | ||
| 70′ | Ricard Sanchez Sendra | ||
| 72′ | Selvi Clua | ||
| 74′ | Selvi CluaSebastián Pérez | ||
| 80′ | Xavier Sintes EgeaPedro Carvalho | ||
| 80′ | João CarvalhoAndré Lacximicant | ||
| 82′ | Yanis Begraoui | ||
| 85′ | Jordan Arnolin | ||
| 87′ | João RegoAbdu Dafe | ||
| 89′ | Benjamin Pauwels | ||
| 90′ | Alassana Jatta |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 0 | Saves | 5 |
| 301 | Accurate passes | 271 |
Estoril vs Casa Pia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estoril vs Casa Pia
| Probability | Estoril | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.4% | 36.8% | 21.8% |
| Market | 55.4% | 24.8% | 19.8% |
| Final | 51.9% | 27.8% | 20.3% |
| Edge | -14.0% | +12.1% | +1.9% |
Why Estoril
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.98 vs 0.63.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estoril and Casa Pia expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.61
Estoril and Casa Pia attack and defence ratings
Estoril
Casa Pia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Estoril vs Casa Pia: result vs prediction
Estoril 1 – 2 Casa Pia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estoril vs Casa Pia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estoril | 51.9% | 1.93 | -14.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.7% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estoril | 51.9% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Casa Pia | 20.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 78.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.5% |
| No | 69.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estoril win | 16.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.2% |
| 1-0 | 18.3% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Estoril vs Casa Pia stats
Estoril and Casa Pia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estoril and Casa Pia going into this match
Estoril record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Casa Pia record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estoril vs Casa Pia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Estoril | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Casa Pia | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-29 | Casa Pia | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 1-3 |
| 2024-12-15 | Estoril | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-08 | Casa Pia | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-10 | Estoril | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 4-0 |
| 2023-05-21 | Casa Pia | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 2-2 |
| 2023-01-16 | Estoril | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 2-0 |
| 2021-04-23 | Estoril | Casa Pia | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2020-12-30 | Casa Pia | Estoril | Segunda Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estoril vs Casa Pia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.4%, draw 24.8%, away 19.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.98 | 4.79 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.82 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.97 | 5.01 |
| SBO | 1.72 | 3.52 | 4.15 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .