Primeira Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Academico Viseu
vs
Estoril
2 – 1 Full time
| 27′ | Jordan Holsgrove | ||
| 29′ | Cihan Kahraman | ||
| 31′ | Cihan Kahraman | ||
| 45′ | Milan RobinNail Omerovic | ||
| 56′ | Rafik Guitane | ||
| 60′ | Soufiane Messeguem | ||
| 67′ | Lorougnon GohiNils Mortimer | ||
| 67′ | Cihan KahramanAlejandro Mestanza | ||
| 73′ | Anthony Correia | ||
| 74′ | Ricard Sanchez SendraPedro Carvalho | ||
| 74′ | Roko JurišićTiago Parente | ||
| 83′ | João GuilhermeAlvaro Zamora | ||
| 88′ | Soufiane Messeguem | ||
| 89′ | Xavier Sintes EgeaAndré Tiago Ramos das Neves | ||
| 90′ | Soufiane MesseguemCristian Ferreira | ||
| 90′ | André ClóvisPaulo Rafael Pereira Araujo |
Academico Viseu
47%
Draw
27%
Estoril
26%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 24 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 8 | Saves | 3 |
| 361 | Accurate passes | 340 |
Academico Viseu vs Estoril overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Academico Viseu vs Estoril
| Probability | Academico Viseu | Draw | Estoril |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.3% | 26.4% | 11.3% |
| Market | 41.8% | 27.7% | 30.4% |
| Final | 46.9% | 27.4% | 25.6% |
| Edge | +5.1% | -0.3% | -4.8% |
Why Academico Viseu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Academico Viseu below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
64%
3+ goals
36%
No goals
13%
Academico Viseu and Estoril expected goals
Academico Viseu
1.60
Estoril
0.54
Total expected goals: 2.14
Academico Viseu and Estoril attack and defence ratings
Academico Viseu
Attack
0.98 -2%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Estoril
Attack
0.57 -43%
Defence
1.12 +12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Academico Viseu vs Estoril: result vs prediction
Academico Viseu 2 – 1 Estoril
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Academico Viseu vs Estoril markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academico Viseu | 46.9% | 2.13 | +5.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.8% | 2.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academico Viseu | 46.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Estoril | 25.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.4% |
| No | 65.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Academico Viseu win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.2% | |
| Loss | 37.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.8% |
| 2-0 | 15.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.8% |
Academico Viseu vs Estoril stats
Academico Viseu and Estoril recent form
| Academico Viseu |
WWWLDL |
| Estoril |
LLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Academico Viseu and Estoril going into this match
Academico Viseu record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estoril record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Academico Viseu vs Estoril head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
2Academico Viseu wins
0Draws
4Estoril wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-01 | Academico Viseu | Estoril | Taça da Liga | 3-2 |
| 2021-02-16 | Estoril | Academico Viseu | Segunda Liga | 3-0 |
| 2020-09-24 | Academico Viseu | Estoril | Segunda Liga | 0-2 |
| 2019-11-03 | Estoril | Academico Viseu | Segunda Liga | 3-1 |
| 2019-05-05 | Estoril | Academico Viseu | Segunda Liga | 1-3 |
| 2018-11-18 | Academico Viseu | Estoril | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Academico Viseu vs Estoril odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 27.7%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.54 | 3.15 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.34 | 3.45 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
| SBO | 2.26 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.25 —
X
3.40 —
2
3.10 ▲ +0.10
14 snapshots recorded, from .