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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

Fátima vs Academico Viseu

1 – 0 Full time

46′Fátima
76′Academico Viseu
83′Fátima
89′Academico Viseu
90′Academico Viseu

Estadio Papa Francisco

Fátima 20%
Draw 22%
Academico Viseu 58%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Fátima vs Academico Viseu overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fátima vs Academico Viseu

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFátimaDrawAcademico Viseu
Model39.5%27.8%32.7%
Market13.9%20.0%66.1%
Final20.3%22.0%57.8%
Edge+6.4%+1.9%-8.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Academico Viseu

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fátima ↓ / Academico Vise → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 8% 13% 8% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 8%

Fátima and Academico Viseu expected goals

Fátima 1.46
Academico Viseu 1.31

Total expected goals: 2.76

Fátima and Academico Viseu attack and defence ratings

Fátima

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Academico Viseu

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fátima vs Academico Viseu: result vs prediction

Fátima 1 – 0 Academico Viseu

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Fátima vs Academico Viseu markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Academico Viseu 57.8% 1.73 -8.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.2% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.1% 1.75 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.7% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.3% 1.49 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fátima20.3%
Draw22.0%
Academico Viseu57.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%
Both teams to scoreYes57.1%
No42.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)42.2%
12 (either side)78.0%
X2 (draw or away)79.7%
Handicap -1Academico Viseu win14.9%
Push (exactly one goal)17.8%
Loss67.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
2-18.7%
1-08.0%

Fátima vs Academico Viseu stats

Fátima and Academico Viseu recent form

newest first
Fátima WWL
Academico Viseu WWWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Fátima vs Academico Viseu head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Fátima vs Academico Viseu odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 13.9%, draw 20.0%, away 66.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.57 4.80 1.39
Bet365 7.50 4.20 1.36
BetVictor 7.00 4.40 1.36
Marathonbet 6.50 4.80 1.38
Pinnacle 4.68 4.65 1.38
William Hill 6.00 4.20 1.36

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.