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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Fátima vs Vinhais

4 – 1 Full time

4′Fátima
23′Fátima
38′Fátima
45′Vinhais
48′Fátima
Fátima 69%
Draw 18%
Vinhais 12%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Fátima vs Vinhais overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fátima vs Vinhais

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFátimaDrawVinhais
Model47.8%23.8%28.4%
Market76.6%16.4%7.0%
Final69.4%18.3%12.3%
Edge-28.8%+7.3%+21.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Fátima

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.49.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fátima ↓ / Vinhais → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 10% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Fátima and Vinhais expected goals

Fátima 1.94
Vinhais 1.49

Total expected goals: 3.43

Fátima and Vinhais attack and defence ratings

Fátima

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Vinhais

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fátima vs Vinhais: result vs prediction

Fátima 4 – 1 Vinhais

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Fátima vs Vinhais markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fátima 69.4% 1.44 -28.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.6% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.2% 1.49 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.7% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.6% 1.90 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fátima69.4%
Draw18.3%
Vinhais12.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.6%
Under 2.533.4%
Both teams to scoreYes67.2%
No32.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.7%
12 (either side)81.7%
X2 (draw or away)30.6%
Handicap -1Fátima win27.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss52.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.3%
2-19.1%
1-26.9%

Fátima vs Vinhais stats

Fátima and Vinhais recent form

newest first
Fátima WL
Vinhais L

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Fátima vs Vinhais head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Fátima vs Vinhais odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 76.6%, draw 16.4%, away 7.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.15 5.50 15.50
Bet365 1.22 5.25 9.50
BetVictor 1.18 5.75 13.00
Betano 1.23 5.20 9.50
Betfair 1.15 6.00 13.00
Marathonbet 1.15 5.50 15.50
Pinnacle 1.18 5.50 10.12
William Hill 1.20 5.00 15.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.18 ▼ -0.26
X 5.50 ▲ +1.85
2 13.00 ▲ +6.50

2 snapshots recorded, from .