Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Fátima
vs
Benfica Castelo Branco
3 – 1 Full time
Fátima
19%
Draw
21%
Benfica Castelo Branco
60%
Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco
| Probability | Fátima | Draw | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.1% | 20.9% | 60.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 19.1% | 20.9% | 60.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Benfica Castelo Branco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
69%
No goals
4%
Fátima and Benfica Castelo Branco expected goals
Fátima
1.28
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.30
Total expected goals: 3.58
Fátima and Benfica Castelo Branco attack and defence ratings
Fátima
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Benfica Castelo Branco
Attack
1.42 +42%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco: result vs prediction
Fátima 3 – 1 Benfica Castelo Branco
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.6% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fátima | 19.1% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 60.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.6% |
| No | 34.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica Castelo Branco win | 38.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 40.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco stats
Fátima and Benfica Castelo Branco recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.
Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
3Fátima wins
2Draws
1Benfica Castelo Branco wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Fátima | Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 4-1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Benfica Castelo Branco | Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 1-0 |
| 2025-01-26 | Fátima | Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-01 | Benfica Castelo Branco | Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 0-0 |
| 2020-01-26 | Benfica Castelo Branco | Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 1-1 |
| 2019-08-25 | Fátima | Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.