Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Pacos Ferreira
vs
Fafe
0 – 1 Full time
Pacos Ferreira
31%
Draw
33%
Fafe
36%
Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
| Probability | Pacos Ferreira | Draw | Fafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.8% | 33.3% | 35.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 30.8% | 33.3% | 35.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Fafe
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
61%
3+ goals
33%
No goals
15%
Pacos Ferreira and Fafe expected goals
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Fafe
1.05
Total expected goals: 2.01
Pacos Ferreira and Fafe attack and defence ratings
Pacos Ferreira
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Fafe
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
0.73 -27%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe: result vs prediction
Pacos Ferreira 0 – 1 Fafe
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Machico v Camacha — match page
Before and after this match
Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fafe | 35.9% | 2.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pacos Ferreira | 30.8% |
| Draw | 33.3% | |
| Fafe | 35.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.7% |
| No | 58.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fafe win | 14.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 64.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 14.6% | |
| 0-1 | 12.7% |
Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe stats
Pacos Ferreira and Fafe recent form
| Pacos Ferreira |
WDLLWD |
| Fafe |
LDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.