Garuda Lions
Today
Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Fafe vs Lajense

4 – 0 Full time

4′P. Otumba
30′M. Correia
66′L. Teixeira
90′D. Carvalho
Fafe 68%
Draw 21%
Lajense 11%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Fafe vs Lajense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fafe vs Lajense

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFafeDrawLajense
Model64.8%22.4%12.8%
Market68.9%20.6%10.5%
Final67.8%21.0%11.1%
Edge-4.1%+1.8%+2.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Fafe

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fafe ↓ / Lajense → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 11% 11% 2 12% 10% 3 8% 6% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 7%

Fafe and Lajense expected goals

Fafe 1.99
Lajense 0.78

Total expected goals: 2.77

Fafe and Lajense attack and defence ratings

Fafe

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Lajense

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 1.46 +46%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fafe vs Lajense: result vs prediction

Fafe 4 – 0 Lajense

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Fafe vs Lajense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fafe 67.8% 1.47 -4.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.3% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score No 52.3% 1.91 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.9% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Fafe win 40.7% 2.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fafe67.8%
Draw21.0%
Lajense11.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.3%
Under 2.547.7%
Both teams to scoreYes47.7%
No52.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.9%
12 (either side)79.0%
X2 (draw or away)32.2%
Handicap -1Fafe win40.7%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss35.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.4%
1-011.5%
1-110.7%

Fafe vs Lajense stats

Fafe and Lajense recent form

newest first
Fafe WLDWWW
Lajense LL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fafe vs Lajense head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Fafe vs Lajense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.9%, draw 20.6%, away 10.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.30 4.30 9.55
Bet365 1.27 4.20 11.00
BetVictor 1.33 4.50 8.00
Betano 1.31 4.35 8.50
Betfair 1.29 4.75 8.50
Marathonbet 1.29 4.30 9.00
Pinnacle 1.33 4.37 7.77
SBO 1.29 4.47 7.05
William Hill 1.30 4.33 8.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.30 —
X 4.35 ▲ +0.01
2 8.50 ▼ -0.20

2 snapshots recorded, from .