Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
FC Serpa
vs
O Grandolense
2 – 0 Full time
FC Serpa
48%
Draw
27%
O Grandolense
25%
FC Serpa vs O Grandolense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Serpa vs O Grandolense
| Probability | FC Serpa | Draw | O Grandolense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.2% | 26.7% | 25.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.2% | 26.7% | 25.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Serpa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.14.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
FC Serpa and O Grandolense expected goals
FC Serpa
1.67
O Grandolense
1.14
Total expected goals: 2.81
FC Serpa and O Grandolense attack and defence ratings
FC Serpa
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
0.81 -19%
O Grandolense
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Serpa vs O Grandolense: result vs prediction
FC Serpa 2 – 0 O Grandolense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Serpa vs O Grandolense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Serpa | 48.2% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Serpa | 48.2% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| O Grandolense | 25.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% |
| No | 43.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Serpa win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 51.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
FC Serpa vs O Grandolense stats
FC Serpa and O Grandolense recent form
| FC Serpa |
LW |
| O Grandolense |
no matches on record |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.