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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

FC Serpa vs Louletano

1 – 2 Full time

26′Louletano
54′FC Serpa
106′Louletano
120′FC Serpa
FC Serpa 27%
Draw 29%
Louletano 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Serpa vs Louletano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Serpa vs Louletano

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC SerpaDrawLouletano
Model39.1%29.2%31.7%
Market22.7%29.5%47.8%
Final26.8%29.4%43.8%
Edge+16.4%-0.3%-16.1%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Serpa ↓ / Louletano → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 8% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 7% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

FC Serpa and Louletano expected goals

FC Serpa 1.34
Louletano 1.20

Total expected goals: 2.54

FC Serpa and Louletano attack and defence ratings

FC Serpa

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Louletano

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Serpa vs Louletano: result vs prediction

FC Serpa 1 – 2 Louletano

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

FC Serpa vs Louletano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Louletano 43.8% 2.28 -16.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.5% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.7% 1.90 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 73.2% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 68.0% 1.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Serpa26.8%
Draw29.4%
Louletano43.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.5%
Under 2.553.5%
Both teams to scoreYes52.7%
No47.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.2%
12 (either side)70.6%
X2 (draw or away)73.2%
Handicap -1Louletano win13.9%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss68.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.0%
1-09.4%
0-09.2%

FC Serpa vs Louletano stats

FC Serpa and Louletano recent form

newest first
FC Serpa WLW
Louletano WLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

FC Serpa vs Louletano head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1FC Serpa wins 2Draws 5Louletano wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15LouletanoFC SerpaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D2-1
2025-11-09FC SerpaLouletanoCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D0-0
2025-03-16LouletanoFC SerpaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D2-0
2024-11-30FC SerpaLouletanoCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D1-3
2024-02-04FC SerpaLouletanoCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D2-1
2023-10-01LouletanoFC SerpaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D3-1
2022-01-29FC SerpaLouletanoCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F2-2
2021-10-31LouletanoFC SerpaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F6-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Serpa vs Louletano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.7%, draw 29.5%, away 47.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.36 2.98 1.85
Bet365 4.10 3.10 1.83
BetVictor 3.90 3.25 1.87
Betfair 3.90 3.30 1.85
Marathonbet 4.25 2.98 1.83
Pinnacle 3.89 2.96 1.88
William Hill 3.75 3.00 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.90 ▼ -0.10
X 3.00 ▲ +0.01
2 1.85 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .