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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

Louletano vs Rio Ave

0 – 1 Full time

40′Carlinhos
46′M. SelloukiD. Nascimento
89′Rio Ave
90′Tamble

Estadio Algarve

Louletano 30%
Draw 22%
Rio Ave 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Louletano vs Rio Ave overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Louletano vs Rio Ave

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLouletanoDrawRio Ave
Model69.3%19.1%11.5%
Market17.1%23.5%59.5%
Final30.1%22.4%47.5%
Edge+13.1%-1.1%-12.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Louletano ↓ / Rio Ave → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 9% 2 11% 10% 3 9% 8% 4+ 9% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Louletano and Rio Ave expected goals

Louletano 2.37
Rio Ave 0.87

Total expected goals: 3.24

Louletano and Rio Ave attack and defence ratings

Louletano

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Rio Ave

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Louletano vs Rio Ave: result vs prediction

Louletano 0 – 1 Rio Ave

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Louletano vs Rio Ave markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rio Ave 47.5% 2.11 -12.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.4% 1.60 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.6% 1.87 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.6% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 88.7% 1.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Louletano30.1%
Draw22.4%
Rio Ave47.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%
Both teams to scoreYes53.6%
No46.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.5%
12 (either side)77.6%
X2 (draw or away)69.9%
Handicap -1Rio Ave win3.7%
Push (exactly one goal)7.6%
Loss88.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.0%
2-19.6%
1-19.0%

Louletano vs Rio Ave stats

Louletano and Rio Ave recent form

newest first
Louletano WWLW
Rio Ave WLDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Louletano vs Rio Ave head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Louletano vs Rio Ave odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 17.1%, draw 23.5%, away 59.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.64 3.90 1.55
Bet365 5.00 4.20 1.48
BetVictor 5.50 4.10 1.50
Marathonbet 5.70 3.90 1.53
Pinnacle 5.23 3.78 1.57
William Hill 5.00 3.50 1.55

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.