Louletano
vs
Rio Ave
Garuda Lions Prediction: Louletano
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Louletano vs Rio Ave overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Louletano vs Rio Ave
| Probability | Louletano | Draw | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.0% | 18.5% | 9.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 72.0% | 18.5% | 9.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Louletano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
Louletano vs Rio Ave match preview
Louletano enters the match against Rio Ave with a strong probability of winning at 72%, while Rio Ave has a mere 9% chance. The expected goals for Louletano stand at 2.32, significantly higher than Rio Ave's 0.75, indicating a potential dominance in offensive play. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% probability, suggesting that Louletano could secure a comfortable victory.
Recent form highlights Louletano's positive trajectory with two wins followed by a loss, while Rio Ave struggles with four losses in their last six matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 59%, and both teams scoring sits at 48%, hinting at a potentially one-sided affair. Overall, the confidence grade is C, reflecting the model's statistical assessment.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Louletano and Rio Ave expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
Louletano and Rio Ave attack and defence ratings
Louletano
Rio Ave
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Louletano vs Rio Ave markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louletano | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Louletano win | 49.5% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louletano | 72.0% |
| Draw | 18.5% | |
| Rio Ave | 9.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Louletano win | 49.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 28.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | |
| 3-0 | 9.7% |