Rio Ave
vs
Famalicao
Garuda Lions Prediction: Famalicao
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Rio Ave vs Famalicao overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rio Ave vs Famalicao
| Probability | Rio Ave | Draw | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.5% | 29.2% | 39.3% |
| Market | 24.9% | 28.3% | 46.7% |
| Final | 26.6% | 28.5% | 44.9% |
| Edge | +6.6% | +0.8% | -7.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rio Ave vs Famalicao match preview
In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Rio Ave hosts Famalicao with probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Famalicao is favored with a 45% chance of winning, while Rio Ave stands at 27%, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Rio Ave recording two wins, a draw, and three losses in their last six matches, while Famalicao has two draws and one win in their last six.
The expected goals for this match are 1.19 for Rio Ave and 1.35 for Famalicao, suggesting a slight edge for the visitors in terms of offensive output. The model indicates a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows no wins for either team in their last two encounters, with two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rio Ave and Famalicao expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Rio Ave and Famalicao attack and defence ratings
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rio Ave vs Famalicao markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Famalicao | 44.9% | 2.23 | -7.4% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rio Ave | 26.6% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Famalicao | 44.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% |
| No | 47.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Famalicao win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Rio Ave vs Famalicao stats
Rio Ave and Famalicao recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rio Ave and Famalicao season so far
Rio Ave record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
- 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Famalicao record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rio Ave vs Famalicao head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Rio Ave | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Famalicao | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rio Ave vs Famalicao odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.9%, draw 28.3%, away 46.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.92 | 3.48 | 2.04 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.30 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.76 | 3.34 | 1.96 |
| Pinnacle | 3.79 | 3.34 | 2.05 |
| SBO | 3.20 | 2.92 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.70 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .