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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

Paredes vs Famalicao

1 – 0 Full time

40′Miguel
56′GarciaP. Santos
56′T. SzucsGil Dias
56′R. BeneyPedro Bondo
58′R. Pinheiro
65′G. KoutsiasU. Abubakar
65′ErikF. Canario
67′D. Rodrigues
72′P. Araujo
73′D. RodriguesRuca
86′F. AlmaraZe Oliveira
86′MiguelJ. Yuk
89′T. Van de LooiP. Salas
90′P. Salas
90′U. Abubakar
90′Pedro Bondo

Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes

Paredes 23%
Draw 22%
Famalicao 55%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Paredes vs Famalicao overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Paredes vs Famalicao

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityParedesDrawFamalicao
Model52.8%24.3%22.9%
Market13.0%21.2%65.7%
Final23.0%22.0%55.0%
Edge+9.9%+0.8%-10.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Paredes ↓ / Famalicao → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Paredes and Famalicao expected goals

Paredes 1.92
Famalicao 1.21

Total expected goals: 3.13

Paredes and Famalicao attack and defence ratings

Paredes

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Famalicao

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Paredes vs Famalicao: result vs prediction

Paredes 1 – 0 Famalicao

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Paredes vs Famalicao markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Famalicao 55.0% 1.82 -10.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.4% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.9% 1.64 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.0% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 77.2% 1.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Paredes23.0%
Draw22.0%
Famalicao55.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%
Both teams to scoreYes60.9%
No39.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.0%
12 (either side)78.0%
X2 (draw or away)77.0%
Handicap -1Famalicao win9.5%
Push (exactly one goal)13.3%
Loss77.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.2%
2-19.7%
2-08.0%

Paredes vs Famalicao stats

Paredes and Famalicao recent form

newest first
Paredes WWL
Famalicao LWDDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Paredes vs Famalicao head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Paredes vs Famalicao odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 13.0%, draw 21.2%, away 65.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 7.18 4.33 1.41
Bet365 4.75 5.50 1.42
BetVictor 7.00 4.33 1.40
Marathonbet 7.10 4.33 1.40
Pinnacle 7.70 4.24 1.38
William Hill 7.00 3.90 1.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 7.05 ▲ +0.06
X 4.33 ▼ -0.04
2 1.40 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .