Paredes
vs
Famalicao
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paredes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Paredes vs Famalicao overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paredes vs Famalicao
| Probability | Paredes | Draw | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.5% | 28.0% | 30.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.5% | 28.0% | 30.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Paredes
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 1 for the opposition.
Paredes vs Famalicao match preview
Paredes faces Famalicao in the Taça de Portugal, with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Paredes has a 41% probability of winning, while Famalicao stands at 31%, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The expected goals for Paredes is 1.47, compared to Famalicao's 1.24, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Paredes, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Paredes has secured two wins followed by a loss, while Famalicao's recent performances include one win, three draws, and two losses. The model indicates a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paredes and Famalicao expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Paredes and Famalicao attack and defence ratings
Paredes
Famalicao
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paredes vs Famalicao markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paredes | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paredes | 41.5% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Famalicao | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paredes win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 58.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |