Famalicao
vs
Alverca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Famalicao
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Famalicao vs Alverca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Famalicao vs Alverca
| Probability | Famalicao | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.4% | 28.5% | 20.1% |
| Market | 50.9% | 27.5% | 21.6% |
| Final | 51.1% | 27.7% | 21.2% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.9% | -1.5% |
Why Famalicao
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.86.
Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Famalicao vs Alverca match preview
Famalicao faces Alverca in the Primeira Liga with a slight edge in the probabilities, as Famalicao is given a 51% chance of winning, while Alverca stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Famalicao, with a 13% probability. Expected goals suggest Famalicao will generate 1.51, compared to Alverca's 0.86, indicating a potential advantage in offensive output.
Recent form shows Famalicao with a record of W-D-D-D-L-L, while Alverca has performed slightly better with W-W-L-D-L-D. In their last two encounters, the teams are evenly matched with one win each. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting a blend of probabilities and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Famalicao and Alverca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
Famalicao and Alverca attack and defence ratings
Famalicao
Alverca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Famalicao vs Alverca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Famalicao | 51.1% | 1.96 | +0.5% | 1.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Famalicao | 51.1% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Alverca | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Famalicao win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 2-0 | 10.7% |
Famalicao vs Alverca stats
Famalicao and Alverca recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Famalicao and Alverca season so far
Famalicao record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alverca record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Famalicao vs Alverca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Famalicao | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Alverca | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Famalicao vs Alverca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.9%, draw 27.5%, away 21.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.66 | 4.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.45 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 3.45 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.54 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.30 | 4.59 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 3.06 | 3.53 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .