Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·Round of 64
Tondela
vs
Alverca
2 – 0 Full time
| 25′ | Zé Ricardo | ||
| 41′ | Arjen Van Der Heide | ||
| 99′ | Carraça | ||
| 100′ | Mateus Sarará | ||
| 105′ | Tiago Dias |
Tondela
33%
Draw
29%
Alverca
37%
Tondela vs Alverca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tondela vs Alverca
| Probability | Tondela | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.1% | 28.7% | 26.1% |
| Market | 29.2% | 29.7% | 41.1% |
| Final | 33.2% | 29.4% | 37.3% |
| Edge | +4.0% | -0.2% | -3.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
46%
No goals
9%
Tondela and Alverca expected goals
Tondela
1.46
Alverca
1.06
Total expected goals: 2.52
Tondela and Alverca attack and defence ratings
Tondela
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
0.72 -28%
Alverca
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tondela vs Alverca: result vs prediction
Tondela 2 – 0 Alverca
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tondela vs Alverca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 37.3% | 2.68 | -3.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 33.2% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Alverca | 37.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alverca win | 10.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.8% | |
| Loss | 73.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
Tondela vs Alverca stats
Tondela vs Alverca head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
0Tondela wins
2Draws
2Alverca wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Tondela | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Alverca | Tondela | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Tondela | Alverca | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-12 | Alverca | Tondela | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tondela vs Alverca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.2%, draw 29.7%, away 41.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.18 | 3.06 | 2.28 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 3.15 | 3.06 | 2.26 |
| Pinnacle | 3.32 | 3.02 | 2.25 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.10 |