Tondela
vs
Alverca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tondela
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Tondela vs Alverca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tondela vs Alverca
| Probability | Tondela | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.7% | 27.7% | 23.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.7% | 27.7% | 23.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Tondela
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Tondela vs Alverca match preview
Tondela faces Alverca in the Taça de Portugal, with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. The model indicates a 49% probability of a Tondela victory, while a draw stands at 28% and Alverca at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Tondela, with an 11% chance. Both teams have a 52% probability of scoring, and the expected goals are 1.57 for Tondela and 1.02 for Alverca.
In terms of recent form, Tondela has recorded three wins followed by three losses, while Alverca has two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. The head-to-head record shows Tondela has not won against Alverca in their last two encounters, with one draw and one win for Alverca. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tondela and Alverca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Tondela and Alverca attack and defence ratings
Tondela
Alverca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tondela vs Alverca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 48.7% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Alverca | 23.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
Tondela vs Alverca stats
Tondela vs Alverca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Tondela | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Alverca | Tondela | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.