Tondela
vs
Torreense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tondela
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Tondela vs Torreense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tondela vs Torreense
| Probability | Tondela | Draw | Torreense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.0% | 27.2% | 30.8% |
| Market | 40.1% | 29.6% | 30.3% |
| Final | 40.6% | 29.0% | 30.4% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -2.4% | +0.5% |
Why Tondela
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tondela vs Torreense match preview
Tondela faces Torreense in an intriguing Segunda Liga matchup. Tondela has a 41% probability of winning, while Torreense stands at 30%, with a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Tondela, with an expected goals tally of 1.54 for Tondela and 1.29 for Torreense. Additionally, there is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Tondela has recorded three wins followed by three losses, while Torreense has two wins, two draws, and two losses in their last six matches. Historically, Tondela has the upper hand in their last eight encounters, securing three wins, four draws, and only one loss against Torreense. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tondela and Torreense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Tondela and Torreense attack and defence ratings
Tondela
Torreense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tondela vs Torreense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 40.6% | 2.46 | +1.9% | 2.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 40.6% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Torreense | 30.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win | 21.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 58.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Tondela vs Torreense stats
Tondela and Torreense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tondela and Torreense season so far
Tondela record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Torreense record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tondela vs Torreense head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Tondela | Torreense | Segunda Liga | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-04 | Torreense | Tondela | Segunda Liga | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-15 | Torreense | Tondela | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-26 | Torreense | Tondela | Taça de Portugal | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-05 | Tondela | Torreense | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-04 | Tondela | Torreense | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-11-24 | Tondela | Torreense | Taça da Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-11 | Torreense | Tondela | Segunda Liga | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tondela vs Torreense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.1%, draw 29.6%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.10 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.36 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.04 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.14 | 3.14 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 2.91 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .