Leixoes
vs
FC Porto B
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leixoes
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Leixoes vs FC Porto B overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leixoes vs FC Porto B
| Probability | Leixoes | Draw | FC Porto B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.0% | 17.6% | 8.4% |
| Market | 59.6% | 23.7% | 16.8% |
| Final | 63.2% | 22.2% | 14.7% |
| Edge | +14.5% | -6.0% | -8.4% |
Why Leixoes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leixoes below the model: +14.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Leixoes vs FC Porto B match preview
Leixoes is favored to win against FC Porto B, with a probability of 74% compared to FC Porto B's 8%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Leixoes, with a 13% chance of occurring. Leixoes has shown solid recent form, recording three wins in their last six matches, while FC Porto B has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
The expected goals reflect this disparity, with Leixoes projected to score 2.37 goals and FC Porto B only 0.70. Additionally, there is a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 47% chance of scoring. The head-to-head record shows each team has one win against the other in their last two encounters, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leixoes and FC Porto B expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Leixoes and FC Porto B attack and defence ratings
Leixoes
FC Porto B
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leixoes vs FC Porto B markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leixoes | 63.2% | 1.58 | +14.5% | 1.58 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Leixoes win | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leixoes | 63.2% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| FC Porto B | 14.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leixoes win | 51.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 26.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.0% |
| 3-0 | 10.3% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Leixoes vs FC Porto B stats
Leixoes and FC Porto B recent form
| Leixoes |
WDWWLW |
| FC Porto B |
DLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leixoes and FC Porto B season so far
Leixoes record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Porto B record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leixoes vs FC Porto B head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | FC Porto B | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 0-3 |
| 2025-12-06 | Leixoes | FC Porto B | Segunda Liga | 2-4 |
| 2025-03-16 | FC Porto B | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Leixoes | FC Porto B | Segunda Liga | 3-0 |
| 2024-02-24 | FC Porto B | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 0-2 |
| 2023-10-01 | Leixoes | FC Porto B | Segunda Liga | 1-3 |
| 2023-03-19 | FC Porto B | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 4-0 |
| 2022-10-08 | Leixoes | FC Porto B | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-16 | Leixoes | FC Porto B | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2021-12-04 | FC Porto B | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leixoes vs FC Porto B odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.6%, draw 23.7%, away 16.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 3.80 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.58 | 4.10 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 3.90 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 4.09 | 5.39 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 3.59 | 5.03 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .