Garuda Lions
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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Cinfães vs Leixoes

0 – 4 Full time

14′Simaozinho
29′B. Rochez
34′S. Agra
45′C. Araujo
Cinfães 19%
Draw 25%
Leixoes 57%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Cinfães vs Leixoes overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cinfães vs Leixoes

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCinfãesDrawLeixoes
Model29.4%31.4%39.2%
Market15.0%22.6%62.3%
Final18.6%24.8%56.5%
Edge+14.3%+8.8%-23.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Leixoes

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cinfães ↓ / Leixoes → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 12% 8% 1 10% 15% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 66%
3+ goals 38%
No goals 12%

Cinfães and Leixoes expected goals

Cinfães 1.01
Leixoes 1.21

Total expected goals: 2.22

Cinfães and Leixoes attack and defence ratings

Cinfães

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Leixoes

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cinfães vs Leixoes: result vs prediction

Cinfães 0 – 4 Leixoes

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Cinfães vs Leixoes markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leixoes 56.5% 1.77 -23.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.6% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score No 53.9% 1.85 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.4% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.8% 1.64 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cinfães18.6%
Draw24.8%
Leixoes56.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.4%
Under 2.561.6%
Both teams to scoreYes46.1%
No53.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)43.5%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)81.4%
Handicap -1Leixoes win17.6%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss60.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-012.1%
0-111.8%

Cinfães vs Leixoes stats

Cinfães and Leixoes recent form

newest first
Cinfães WL
Leixoes DWWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Cinfães vs Leixoes head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Cinfães vs Leixoes odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 15.0%, draw 22.6%, away 62.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 7.05 3.92 1.41
Bet365 5.50 3.60 1.53
BetVictor 6.00 4.20 1.45
Betano 5.50 3.80 1.50
Betfair 6.50 4.33 1.36
Marathonbet 6.70 3.92 1.40
Pinnacle 5.76 3.97 1.41
William Hill 5.80 3.90 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.90 ▼ -1.35
X 3.92 ▼ -0.23
2 1.42 ▲ +0.06

2 snapshots recorded, from .