Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Cinfães
vs
Espinho
1 – 0 Full time
Cinfães
25%
Draw
29%
Espinho
46%
Cinfães vs Espinho overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cinfães vs Espinho
| Probability | Cinfães | Draw | Espinho |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.6% | 28.9% | 46.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.6% | 28.9% | 46.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Espinho
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
72%
3+ goals
45%
No goals
10%
Cinfães and Espinho expected goals
Cinfães
1.00
Espinho
1.46
Total expected goals: 2.47
Cinfães and Espinho attack and defence ratings
Cinfães
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
0.94 -6%
Espinho
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
0.70 -30%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cinfães vs Espinho: result vs prediction
Cinfães 1 – 0 Espinho
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Cinfães vs Espinho markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Espinho | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cinfães | 24.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Espinho | 46.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Espinho win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |