Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Varzim
vs
Trofense
5 – 1 Full time
Varzim
25%
Draw
20%
Trofense
56%
Varzim vs Trofense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Varzim vs Trofense
| Probability | Varzim | Draw | Trofense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.7% | 19.6% | 55.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.7% | 19.6% | 55.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Trofense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.76.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
94%
3+ goals
81%
No goals
2%
Varzim and Trofense expected goals
Varzim
1.76
Trofense
2.58
Total expected goals: 4.34
Varzim and Trofense attack and defence ratings
Varzim
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.37 +37%
Trofense
Attack
1.34 +34%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Varzim vs Trofense: result vs prediction
Varzim 5 – 1 Trofense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
- Machico v Camacha — match page
Before and after this match
Varzim vs Trofense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trofense | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Varzim | 24.7% |
| Draw | 19.6% | |
| Trofense | 55.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.9% |
| No | 23.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Trofense win | 36.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 44.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | |
| 1-3 | 6.6% |
Varzim vs Trofense stats
Varzim vs Trofense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Varzim wins
1Draws
5Trofense wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Trofense | Varzim | Liga 3 | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Trofense | Varzim | Liga 3 | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Varzim | Trofense | Liga 3 | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Varzim | Trofense | Liga 3 | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Trofense | Varzim | Liga 3 | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Trofense | Varzim | Taça de Portugal | 5-1 |
| 2025-01-18 | Varzim | Trofense | Liga 3 | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Trofense | Varzim | Liga 3 | 3-2 |
| 2023-12-16 | Varzim | Trofense | Liga 3 | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-03 | Trofense | Varzim | Liga 3 | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.