FC Porto B
vs
União de Leiria
Garuda Lions Prediction: União de Leiria
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.17.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — União de Leiria is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Porto B vs União de Leiria
| Probability | FC Porto B | Draw | União de Leiria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.3% | 25.7% | 50.0% |
| Market | 24.9% | 26.9% | 48.2% |
| Final | 24.8% | 26.6% | 48.6% |
| Edge | -0.2% | -0.3% | +0.4% |
Why União de Leiria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.3% per unit staked (our 48.6% × 1.99 − 1).
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria match preview
FC Porto B faces União de Leiria in the Segunda Liga, with the model indicating a 24% chance of a home win for FC Porto B, a 26% probability of a draw, and a 50% likelihood of an away victory for União de Leiria. The most likely scoreline projected is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams show a tendency to score, with probabilities of 58% for both teams to find the net and a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, FC Porto B has recorded one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six matches, while União de Leiria has been more consistent, securing four wins, one loss, and one draw in the same period. The expected goals for FC Porto B stand at 1.17, compared to 1.75 for União de Leiria, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors. The head-to-head record shows FC Porto B has not won against União de Leiria in their last two encounters, with one draw and one loss.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Porto B and União de Leiria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
FC Porto B and União de Leiria attack and defence ratings
FC Porto B
União de Leiria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União de Leiria | 48.6% | 2.06 | +0.4% | 1.99 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto B | 24.8% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| União de Leiria | 48.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | União de Leiria win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 50.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria stats
FC Porto B and União de Leiria recent form
| FC Porto B |
WDLLWL |
| União de Leiria |
WLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Porto B and União de Leiria season so far
FC Porto B record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
União de Leiria record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | União de Leiria | FC Porto B | Segunda Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | FC Porto B | União de Leiria | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.9%, draw 26.9%, away 48.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.70 | 3.44 | 1.93 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.87 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.45 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 3.44 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 3.80 | 3.52 | 1.93 |
| SBO | 3.32 | 3.00 | 1.87 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .