União de Leiria
vs
AVS
Garuda Lions Prediction: União de Leiria
1 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — União de Leiria is the favourite, not a value bet.
União de Leiria vs AVS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: União de Leiria vs AVS
| Probability | União de Leiria | Draw | AVS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.0% | 30.1% | 41.9% |
| Market | 55.7% | 24.1% | 20.3% |
| Final | 48.8% | 25.6% | 25.7% |
| Edge | -6.9% | +1.5% | +5.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.1% per unit staked (our 48.8% × 1.70 − 1).
União de Leiria vs AVS match preview
In the upcoming Segunda Liga match, União de Leiria hosts AVS with a kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, União de Leiria has a 49% probability of winning, while both a draw and an AVS victory are estimated at 26%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of União de Leiria, with an 8% chance. The expected goals for União de Leiria stand at 1.04, compared to AVS's 1.33.
Recent form shows União de Leiria with a record of D-W-L-W-D-W, while AVS has performed strongly with W-W-W-W-D-L. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 42%, and there is a 49% chance that both teams will score in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
União de Leiria and AVS expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
União de Leiria and AVS attack and defence ratings
União de Leiria
AVS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
União de Leiria vs AVS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União de Leiria | 48.8% | 2.05 | -6.9% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União de Leiria | 48.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| AVS | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.9% |
| No | 51.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | União de Leiria win | 11.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 72.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
União de Leiria vs AVS stats
União de Leiria and AVS recent form
| União de Leiria |
DWLWDW |
| AVS |
WWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
União de Leiria and AVS season so far
União de Leiria record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
AVS record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
União de Leiria vs AVS head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
União de Leiria vs AVS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.7%, draw 24.1%, away 20.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.86 | 4.58 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.86 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.91 | 4.58 |