Tondela
vs
Felgueiras 1932
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tondela
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.99.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932
| Probability | Tondela | Draw | Felgueiras 1932 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.5% | 30.6% | 26.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.5% | 30.6% | 26.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Tondela
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 match preview
Tondela hosts Felgueiras 1932 in a Segunda Liga clash, with Tondela holding a 42% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, with a 15% chance. Tondela's recent form shows a strong performance with four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Felgueiras 1932 has a mixed record of three wins and three losses in the same period.
In terms of expected goals, Tondela is forecasted to score 1.15, while Felgueiras 1932 is expected to net 0.83. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 32%, and both teams scoring is projected at 40%. With a confidence grade of C, this match presents an intriguing matchup between the two sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tondela and Felgueiras 1932 expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.29
Tondela and Felgueiras 1932 attack and defence ratings
Tondela
Felgueiras 1932
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 42.5% | 2.35 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 42.5% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 57.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 0-0 | 11.4% |
Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 stats
Tondela and Felgueiras 1932 recent form
| Tondela |
LWWWWW |
| Felgueiras 1932 |
DWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tondela and Felgueiras 1932 season so far
Tondela record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Felgueiras 1932 record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.