Amarante
vs
FC Porto B
Garuda Lions Prediction: Amarante
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Amarante vs FC Porto B overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Amarante vs FC Porto B
| Probability | Amarante | Draw | FC Porto B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.1% | 27.0% | 26.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.1% | 27.0% | 26.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Amarante
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.18.
Amarante vs FC Porto B match preview
Amarante is set to face FC Porto B in the Segunda Liga, with our model assigning a 48% probability of a home victory, while both teams share a 26% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Amarante, which has a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Amarante stands at 1.69, compared to 1.18 for FC Porto B, indicating a potential edge for the home side in offensive output.
Recent form shows Amarante with a mixed record of L-L-W-D-L-W, while FC Porto B has struggled, recording W-D-L-L-W-L in their last six matches. With a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score, this match could see multiple goals and an engaging contest.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Amarante and FC Porto B expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Amarante and FC Porto B attack and defence ratings
Amarante
FC Porto B
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Amarante vs FC Porto B markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 46.1% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| FC Porto B | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Amarante win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 53.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 8.7% |
Amarante vs FC Porto B stats
Amarante and FC Porto B recent form
| Amarante |
LLWDLW |
| FC Porto B |
DWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Amarante and FC Porto B season so far
Amarante record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Porto B record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.