FC Porto B
vs
Portimonense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Portimonense
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Portimonense is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Porto B vs Portimonense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Porto B vs Portimonense
| Probability | FC Porto B | Draw | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.4% | 32.5% | 37.1% |
| Market | 28.0% | 28.4% | 43.6% |
| Final | 28.6% | 29.4% | 42.0% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +1.0% | -1.6% |
Why Portimonense
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (our 42.0% × 2.20 − 1).
FC Porto B vs Portimonense match preview
FC Porto B faces Portimonense in the Segunda Liga, with our model assigning a 30% probability of a home win, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 37% likelihood of an away victory. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with FC Porto B at 0.99 and Portimonense at 1.12. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 12%.
In terms of recent form, FC Porto B has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Portimonense has two wins, three losses, and one draw in their recent outings. Both teams have previously met twice, with each securing one victory. The probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 44%, and the chance of over 2.5 goals is at 35%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Porto B and Portimonense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.11
FC Porto B and Portimonense attack and defence ratings
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Porto B vs Portimonense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portimonense | 42.0% | 2.38 | -1.6% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto B | 28.6% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Portimonense | 42.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.6% |
| No | 56.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portimonense win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 62.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-1 | 12.3% |
FC Porto B vs Portimonense stats
FC Porto B and Portimonense recent form
| FC Porto B |
LDWDLL |
| Portimonense |
DLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Porto B and Portimonense season so far
FC Porto B record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portimonense record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Porto B vs Portimonense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Portimonense | FC Porto B | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | FC Porto B | Portimonense | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Porto B vs Portimonense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.0%, draw 28.4%, away 43.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.36 | 3.30 | 2.09 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.35 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 3.34 | 3.30 | 2.07 |
| Pinnacle | 3.48 | 3.36 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 2.90 | 2.97 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .