Chaves
vs
Penafiel
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penafiel
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.20.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Chaves vs Penafiel overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chaves vs Penafiel
| Probability | Chaves | Draw | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.4% | 21.3% | 60.4% |
| Market | 39.3% | 28.2% | 32.5% |
| Final | 34.1% | 26.5% | 39.4% |
| Edge | -5.2% | -1.7% | +7.0% |
Why Penafiel
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penafiel below our published probability: +7.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +17.5% per unit staked (our 39.4% × 2.98 − 1).
Chaves vs Penafiel match preview
Chaves will face Penafiel in the Segunda Liga on November 7, 2026, with the match expected to be competitive. According to our model, Chaves has a 23% chance of winning, while Penafiel is favored at 55%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of Penafiel, which aligns with expected goals of 1.47 for Chaves and 2.29 for Penafiel.
Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Chaves recording three wins in their last six matches, while Penafiel has achieved four wins in their last six. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 72%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 70%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chaves and Penafiel expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.45
Chaves and Penafiel attack and defence ratings
Chaves
Penafiel
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chaves vs Penafiel markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 39.4% | 2.54 | +7.0% | 2.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.6% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chaves | 34.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Penafiel | 39.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win | 39.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 39.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 8.1% |
Chaves vs Penafiel stats
Chaves and Penafiel recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chaves and Penafiel season so far
Chaves record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
Penafiel record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Chaves vs Penafiel head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Chaves | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Penafiel | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-15 | Penafiel | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-04 | Chaves | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-07-18 | Penafiel | Chaves | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2022-03-06 | Penafiel | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-10 | Chaves | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 3-1 |
| 2021-03-29 | Chaves | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2020-11-09 | Penafiel | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
| 2020-02-17 | Penafiel | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chaves vs Penafiel odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.3%, draw 28.2%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.28 | 2.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.35 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.28 | 2.76 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.39 | 2.98 |
| SBO | 2.26 | 2.92 | 2.59 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .