Academica
vs
Amarante
Garuda Lions Prediction: Academica
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.28.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Academica vs Amarante overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Academica vs Amarante
| Probability | Academica | Draw | Amarante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.7% | 23.4% | 23.0% |
| Market | 45.1% | 28.0% | 26.9% |
| Final | 47.2% | 26.8% | 25.9% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
Why Academica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Academica below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (our 47.2% × 2.13 − 1).
Academica vs Amarante match preview
Academica is favored to win against Amarante with a 57% probability, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 22% and Amarante's chances are at 20%. The most probable scoreline according to our model is 2-1, occurring at a 10% likelihood. The expectation for over 2.5 goals in the match is 65%, and both teams scoring is projected at 63%.
In terms of recent form, Academica has recorded three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while Amarante's recent performance includes two wins, three losses, and one draw. The expected goals for Academica are 2.13, compared to Amarante's 1.21. The head-to-head record shows Academica with one win, Amarante with one win, and two draws in their last four encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Academica and Amarante expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
Academica and Amarante attack and defence ratings
Academica
Amarante
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Academica vs Amarante markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 47.2% | 2.12 | +2.1% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 47.2% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Amarante | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Academica win | 32.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Academica vs Amarante stats
Academica and Amarante recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Academica and Amarante season so far
Academica record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Amarante record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Academica vs Amarante head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Academica | Amarante | Taça de Portugal | 3-2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Academica | Amarante | Liga 3 | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Amarante | Academica | Liga 3 | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Amarante | Academica | Taça de Portugal | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Academica vs Amarante odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.1%, draw 28.0%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06 | 3.30 | 3.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.30 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.34 | 3.48 |
| SBO | 2.05 | 2.93 | 2.93 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .