Amarante
vs
Felgueiras 1932
Garuda Lions Prediction: Amarante
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Amarante is the favourite, not a value bet.
Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932
| Probability | Amarante | Draw | Felgueiras 1932 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.9% | 27.1% | 37.1% |
| Market | 38.4% | 30.8% | 30.7% |
| Final | 37.8% | 29.9% | 32.3% |
| Edge | -0.6% | -0.9% | +1.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 37.8% × 2.48 − 1).
Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 match preview
Amarante faces Felgueiras 1932 in a Segunda Liga matchup with both teams showing mixed recent form. Amarante's last five matches include two wins, while Felgueiras 1932 has secured two victories in their recent outings. According to our model, the probabilities for this match suggest a 37% chance of an Amarante win, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 34% likelihood of a Felgueiras 1932 victory.
The expected goals are closely matched, with Amarante at 1.44 and Felgueiras 1932 at 1.47. Our model indicates a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Amarante, occurring with an 8% likelihood.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Amarante and Felgueiras 1932 expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Amarante and Felgueiras 1932 attack and defence ratings
Amarante
Felgueiras 1932
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 37.8% | 2.65 | -0.6% | 2.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 37.8% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.8% |
| No | 40.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Amarante win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 64.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 stats
Amarante and Felgueiras 1932 recent form
| Amarante |
DWLLLW |
| Felgueiras 1932 |
DLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Amarante and Felgueiras 1932 season so far
Amarante record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Felgueiras 1932 record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-02 | Felgueiras 1932 | Amarante | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 3-5 |
| 2019-09-01 | Amarante | Felgueiras 1932 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.4%, draw 30.8%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 2.98 | 3.04 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.05 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.48 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 2.98 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.02 | 3.17 |
| SBO | 2.24 | 2.80 | 2.72 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .