Tondela
vs
Farense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tondela
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.27.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tondela is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tondela vs Farense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tondela vs Farense
| Probability | Tondela | Draw | Farense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.3% | 26.0% | 27.7% |
| Market | 44.7% | 28.4% | 26.8% |
| Final | 45.1% | 27.8% | 27.0% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -0.6% | +0.2% |
Why Tondela
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.9% per unit staked (our 45.1% × 2.13 − 1).
Tondela vs Farense match preview
Tondela enters this matchup with a strong recent form, having won their last six matches, while Farense has shown mixed results with two wins and three losses in their last five games. According to our model, Tondela has a 48% probability of winning, while Farense stands at 27%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Tondela is 1.79, compared to Farense's 1.30, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Tondela, with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams are expected to score with a probability of 62%. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tondela and Farense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Tondela and Farense attack and defence ratings
Tondela
Farense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tondela vs Farense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 45.1% | 2.22 | +0.4% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 45.1% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Farense | 27.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 7.6% |
Tondela vs Farense stats
Tondela and Farense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tondela and Farense season so far
Tondela record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Farense record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tondela vs Farense head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-27 | Farense | Tondela | Taça da Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-28 | Farense | Tondela | Segunda Liga | 3-1 |
| 2023-01-22 | Tondela | Farense | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
| 2021-05-15 | Farense | Tondela | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-30 | Tondela | Farense | Primeira Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tondela vs Farense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 28.4%, away 26.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.35 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.30 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.34 | 3.66 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 2.92 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .