Sporting CP B
vs
Tondela
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tondela
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tondela is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sporting CP B vs Tondela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting CP B vs Tondela
| Probability | Sporting CP B | Draw | Tondela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.8% | 29.5% | 32.7% |
| Market | 31.8% | 28.7% | 39.5% |
| Final | 33.3% | 28.9% | 37.8% |
| Edge | +1.5% | +0.2% | -1.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (our 37.8% × 2.40 − 1).
Sporting CP B vs Tondela match preview
Sporting CP B faces Tondela in the Segunda Liga, with both teams showing competitive recent form. Sporting CP B has recorded three wins followed by a loss and two more victories in their last six matches, while Tondela has been on a strong run, winning five of their last six games. The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Sporting CP B and Tondela both at 35% to win, and a draw at 30%.
The expected goals suggest a tight match, with Sporting CP B projected at 1.30 and Tondela at 1.20. Our model indicates a most likely scoreline of 0-1 in favor of Tondela, with a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting CP B and Tondela expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Sporting CP B and Tondela attack and defence ratings
Sporting CP B
Tondela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sporting CP B vs Tondela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 37.8% | 2.65 | -1.7% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting CP B | 33.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Tondela | 37.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win | 14.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 67.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-0 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.4% |
Sporting CP B vs Tondela stats
Sporting CP B and Tondela recent form
| Sporting CP B |
WWWLWW |
| Tondela |
WLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting CP B and Tondela season so far
Sporting CP B record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tondela record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sporting CP B vs Tondela head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Sporting CP B vs Tondela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.8%, draw 28.7%, away 39.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.90 | 3.15 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.88 | 3.15 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.36 | 2.36 |
| SBO | 2.68 | 2.91 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .